Alabama Basketball begins the serious basketball month of February with its stiffest challenge since December. Alabama's SEC regular-season schedule is seven games in with 11 to go. The Crimson Tide is in a logjam of five teams with three SEC losses. Texas A&M leads the conference at 6-1, followed by Arkansas at 6-2 and Florida at 5-2.
Alabama's Sunday opponent, the Florida Gators are the SEC's highest-ranked team by the NCAA NET rankings, KPom, Bart Torvik, and ESPN's BPI. ESPN Analytics gives Alabama only a 29.1% probability of winning in Gainesville.
An SEC regular-season title is no afterthought for Nate Oats. The SEC and NCAA tournaments matter more, but to Oats, they're all important. The remaining schedule allows Alabama to defeat not only the Gators but also the other two teams higher in the SEC standings: Texas A&M and Arkansas.
Seven of the Crimson Tide's remaining 11 regular-season games are against teams currently ranked in the top 40 of the NCAA NET. Three of Alabama's next four games are on the road, including a trip to Auburn. Based on ESPN Analytics, Alabama will lose to Florida, Auburn in Auburn, Tennessee in Knoxville, and squeak by Georgia in Athens. In the other six games Alabama is projected to win, the probabilities range from 63.1% in Baton Rouge to 91.3% against South Carolina in Tuscaloosa. ESPN has the Tide's home win probability against Texas A&M at 71.5% and Arkansas at 70.2%
Alabama Basketball Computer Model Rankings
- The Crimson Tide is No. 20 in the NCAA NET. SEC teams ranked higher are Florida (No. 12 and Vanderbilt (No. 12). SEC leader Texas A&M is ranked No. 40.
- ESPN's BPI has Alabama at No. 19. Ranked higher are Florida (No. 7), Vanderbilt (No. 14), and Tennessee (No. 17).
- Ken Pomeroy's KPom ratings have Alabama at No. 17. Ranked higher are Florida (No. 8) and Vanderbilt (No. 12).
- Bart Torvik's T-Rank has Alabama ranked No. 16. Ranked higher are Florida (No. 5) and Vanderbilt (No. 7). Torvik's 'Wins Above the Bubble' ranking has Alabama No. 18, Vanderbilt is No. 10, Arkansas is No. 15, Florida is No. 21, Tennessee is No. 24, and Auburn is No. 25.
- Kevin Pauga's KPI has Alabama at No. 16, Vanderbilt No. 7, Arkansas No. 21, Florida No. 22, Auburn No. 24, Tennessee No. 27, and Georgia No. 36. The KPI has Texas A&M at No. 48.
For Alabama Basketball, challenge abounds, and for Crimson Tide fans, February and March are going to be great fun.