Alabama basketball is limping into the end of the regular season having lost four of its last six games, including two in a row. Fortunately for them, they now get to go on the road to play the team that has been the best team in college basketball all year long. Hooray!
Going to Neville and beating Auburn was always going to be a difficult task, that's why some of the Crimson Tide's recent defeats have been so frustrating. Poor execution at the end of both halves cost them in Knoxville last weekend. They got outhustled, and frankly outplayed by a better team, on Wednesday against Florida.
If Alabama wanted to beat Auburn, they had their chance a couple of weeks ago in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide played well enough to win, beating the Tigers by nine on the glass, but were let down by a 5-of-26 shooting afternoon from three-point range.
To have any shot of winning on the Plains, Alabama is going to have to play its best game of the season. Even at their best, it might not be enough. The Tigers are really good and have shown they can get to a level that the Crimson Tide has yet to reach.
As frustrating as these last six games have been, it's important to remember the historically difficult stretch Alabama has gone through. They've lost to three KenPom top five teams and lost on the road to a Top 15 Missouri team.
Alabama has proven it can play, and beat, any team in the country. They have wins over Illinois, Houston, Kentucky twice, and Texas A&M on the road to prove it.
The Tide appears to be pretty locked in to a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Joe Lunardi has them 6th overall in his latest Bracketology. Getting back to a 1-seed would probably require beating Auburn and perhaps winning the SEC Tournament to boot. Neither feels super likely, but even if nothing at all was on the line, beating Auburn on the road still means quite a bit.
Alabama basketball is an underdog on the road at Auburn
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Spread: Auburn -7.5
Over/Under: 178.5
How to Watch:
Tip Time: 1:30 PM CT
TV: ESPN
Streaming: Fubo TV
Prediction:
The spread opened at Auburn -8.5 but has been bet down to -7.5 as of Friday evening. KenPom gives Alabama about a 20% chance of winning and projects a 93-83 Auburn win.
Nate Oats knows how difficult this game is going to be.
“They’re good. We can play a really good basketball game and still lose to them,” Oats said on Friday.
It will take Alabama's best effort of the year to have a shot to win. Cliff Omoruyi and Grant Nelson will need to step up and play well against Johni Broome and Dylan Cardwell. Winning on the glass again against the Tigers would go a long way.
But Alabama will need a good shooting night. Maybe even a great one. Mark Sears will need to play like an All American, but other players on the margins will need to play well, too.
I suspect this game will be pretty competitive for a while, but beating Auburn on the road is probably asking for too much.