A lot of things can go wrong in a college football game. Even with Alabama's best-laid plans and Tennessee's questionable quarterback situation, playing in Knoxville should never be considered easy.
Tennessee's underperforming passing game should limit the Vols. Tennessee's offensive line has also been a problem: No. 13 among SEC teams for tackles for a loss (TFL) allowed and No.15 for sacks allowed. Tennessee's weaknesses would have been worse if the Vols (according to ESPN's FPI) hadn't played the SEC's least difficult schedule. Tennessee's SOS is No. 44 among all FBS teams. Alabama's SOS is No. 7.
Statistically, Alabama hasn't been much better: the SEC's No. 9 team in TFLs allowed and tied for No. 13 in sacks allowed.
Brian Fremeau's opponent-adjusted Defensive Efficiency ratings show Alabama No. 6 nationally, while the Vols are No. 16. Without Terrance Green on Saturday, Alabama's defense likely won't be the nation's sixth-best.
Alabama's recipe for winning is easy to understand: Give Keelon adequate protection; run the ball effectively, because if not, the Vols will ramp up pressure on Keelon; and control Tennessee's rushing attack. The third point, more directly stated, is 'don't let DeSean Bishop beat you'.
Without Green, Kane Wommack must adjust. Every SEC team knows what Bishop can do. Alabama should know it better than other teams, except maybe Auburn. Bishop ran for 220 yards in Tennessee's win over the Tigers. In 2024, Bishop had only five carries against Alabama, but he averaged 7.2 yards. In 2025, he ran for 123 yards against the Crimson Tide, averaging 8.8 yards per carry.
What Alabama must do against the Vols
- Shore up its interior run defense despite not having the Tide's best interior defensive lineman available. Alabama had gap protection problems against Georgia. In the second half, with no Terrance Green, Alabama was gashed by the Bulldogs.
The next must-dos are the Tide offense against a good Tennessee defensive front. Even with a healthy Racin Delgatty, Alabama probably would have needed to double Tennessee's Xavier Gilliam. Cole Cubelic calls the Tennessee defensive lineman college football's best defensive player. Michael Waldrep will need some help with Gilliam.
- Run the ball effectively. Alabama can't be one-dimensional.
- Provide adequate pass protection for Keelon. A new center in a crazy loud stadium and a young QB can feed the good Tennessee defense. Motion penalties and delay-of-game penalties could thwart Alabama drives.
What will happen? I think the models predicting an Alabama 6-8 point win are accurate. Even in Neyland, Alabama might be a 10-point better team. But the Vols could exploit Crimson Tide weaknesses enough to make the game close.
Note: Stats provided by Sports Reference and cfbstats.com
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