Alabama closes out the regular season on Saturday night at home against Auburn with an opportunity to burst the Tigers' bubble.
Steven Pearl's first year as the Auburn head coach has not gone according to plan, and at 16-14, the Tigers are in desperate need of a road win against the Crimson Tide to get into the NCAA Tournament.
Alabama beat Auburn at Neville Arena last month and will be looking for a season sweep of the Tigers at Coleman.
A big reason Alabama was able to knock off Auburn on the road was that it took advantage of the biggest flaw of its rival. It'll look to do that again in Tuscaloosa.
Auburn's 3-point defense is a fatal flaw Alabama will take full advantage of
The biggest reason for Auburn's downward trend this year has been a bottoming out on the defensive end of the floor. The Tigers were elite defensively in Bruce Pearl's final season on the bench, but rank 116th in defensive efficiency on KenPom.
The primary reason for that is how poorly Auburn has defended the three-point line. Opponents are shooting 37.4% from three against them this season, a mark that ranks the Tigers 345th in Division I.
Led by a surging Latrell Wrightsell, Alabama's three-point shooting is up to 36.2% on the season and rising. In the first meeting, Alabama hit 12-of-23 (52%) from beyond the arc in a 96-92 win, and that was with Wrightsell only being able to play 11 minutes before suffering an injury.
Alabama will want to get more than 23 attempts up on Saturday night. 42% of Alabama's points come from behind the three-point line, and with Wrightsell shooting over 43% in SEC play, teamed with Aden Holloway, Labaron Philon, Amari Allen, and Houston Mallette, among others, the Crimson Tide has the ability to devastate even good opposing defenses with a barrage of three pointers.
Against an Auburn team that has frequently allowed even poor shooting teams to get hot from three, that could lead to a huge night for the Crimson Tide and a blowout win that completely bursts Auburn's bubble, barring an unexpected run in Nashville next week.