Alabama can still make the playoff, but must win out and that feels unlikely

Alabama football is not eliminated from the College Football Playoff following Saturday afternoon's loss to Tennessee in Knoxville, the Crimson Tide's second loss of the 2024 season. It's the first time Alabama has more than a single loss in October since 2007.

Alabama slid all the way down to No. 15 in the AP Poll, the lowest it has been ranked in 14 years. Its playoff hopes are now on life support, with only one sure fire way for the Crimson Tide to make the 12-team field.

Alabama has to win out. It cannot afford another loss, no matter who that loss is to. There's still a couple of opportunities to earn resume building wins, and it already has one of the best wins of the college football season having beaten Georgia in Tuscaloosa. The win over the Bulldogs keeps looking better each week, especially after Georgia knocked off Texas on the road and has now ascended back to No. 2 in the polls.

No. 21 Missouri comes to Tuscaloosa this week in a game that will be far from a gimme. Tigers QB Brady Cook has two elite WR's and isn't likely to miss some of the deep throws that Tennessee's Nico Iamaleava did on Saturday. If the Alabama offense doesn't rebound and look much better than it did the last two weeks, the Crimson Tide could lose its third out of the last four games.

Alabama then takes a week off before heading to Baton Rouge and facing a surging LSU team that has won six consecutive games after a season opening loss to USC and has moved up to No. 8 in the country. Scoring a win in Death Valley would be a major resume booster.

But the Alabama team we've seen the last three weeks has little to no chance of surving a road game in Baton Rouge.

But, if somehow Alabama beats Missouri and LSU, and then navigates a tricky road game in Norman against Oklahoma and avoids a slip-up in the Iron Bowl to Auburn at home, then at 10-2, the Crimson Tide would likely be a playoff lock.

According to ESPN's AllState Playoff Predictor, Alabama would have a 98% certainty of making the playoff. It would have a 67% chance of hosting a first round game, meaning it would be seeded somewhere between No. 5 and No. 8.

If Alabama beats Missouri and Oklahoma, but loses at LSU, the Tide's chances drop to 20%. If Alabama beats Oklahoma and LSU, but loses to Missouri, the chances are at 21%. Beating Missouri and LSU but losing at Oklahoma would give the Tide a 26% of making the field. Losing two more games would obviously keep the Crimson Tide out of the playoff, and raise some uncomfortable questions about the future of the program, too.

Alabama's chances of winning the SEC Championship for the second straight year is less likely. With two losses, the Crimson Tide is currently tied for 8th in the league. Winning out would change that, but it already won't have the tie breaker to Tennessee or even Vanderbilt. It does have the tiebreaker over Georgia, but I'm not sure the Bulldogs will lose another game for it to even matter.

So through the doom and gloom of Saturday's loss on Rocky Top, the Crimson Tide is still very much alive in the playoff race. It just can't afford another loss. But winning its remaining five regular season games looks like a tall task for a team that has played as poorly as Alabama has over the last three weeks.

If the Crimson Tide wins out, then head coach Kalen DeBoer will deserve a lot of credit regardless of what happens when Alabama actually gets into the playoff. Even losing the first game would probably make Alabama fans feel like he got the most out of this roster down the stretch.

A more likely scenario has the Crimson Tide losing at LSU and finishing the regular season 9-3, and likely just outside the College Football Playoff. Finishing the regular season worse than 9-3, and well, that's a horror that feels too scary to even think about, though increasingly more realistic with each passing week.