Alabama clears bar for major national championship indicator for 2025

Kalen DeBoer has continued amassing elite talent in Tuscaloosa and for 2025 that has the Crimson Tide at the top of Bud Elliot's blue-chip ratio.
Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer
Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Kalen DeBoer | Jake Crandall/ Advertiser / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

While it’s not a requirement, and CBS Sports’s Bud Elliot is clear about that, since 2011, when he began the project, every national champion has cleared the blue-chip ratio. That means that over the last four years, they have recruited more four and five-star players than two and three-stars. 

This year, despite the significant roster churn that occurred when Nick Saban retired and Kalen DeBoer took over, and despite expectations (that have since been disproven) that DeBoer would be a subpar SEC recruiter, Alabama is the No. 1 team on Elliot’s 2025 blue-chip ratio. 

Alabama leads the country in Bud Elliot’s blue-chip ratio

Of the last four recruiting cycles, which are factored into Elliot’s blue-chip ratio, Alabama’s lowest-ranked class is the 2025 group that finished No. 3 in the country. The 2023 class ranked No. 1 while 2022 and 2024 were both No. 2, a nice parting gift from Saban’s decade and a half of dominance. 

Transfers are not factored into the blue-chip ratio, only the high school and junior college recruits who sign with the program. 

So, what is Alabama’s blue-chip ratio? The Crimson Tide check in even with Ohio State at 89% for the 2025 season, clear of Georgia and Texas A&M, the only two other programs with over an 80% ratio. There are only 18 teams in the country that have a higher concentration of four and five-stars than two and three-stars. 

Alabama has won the national championship five times since the inception of Elliot’s blue-chip ratio in 2011, including the 2011 and 2012 titles. Here are the blue-chip ratios of Alabama’s five national title teams: 

  • 2011 Alabama: 71%
  • 2012 Alabama: 71%
  • 2015 Alabama: 77%
  • 2017 Alabama: 80%
  • 2020 Alabama: 83%

The transfer portal era has brought some fluctuations to the blue-chip ratio data, with 2023 Michigan representing a bit of an outlier as one of just three teams since 2011 with a blue-chip ratio under 60 percent. Still, it can be an important indicator, and in 2024, Ohio State’s blue-chip ratio was 90 percent, the highest of any national champion in the database.

Alabama’s 89 percent blue-chip ratio certainly doesn’t guarantee a national title, especially with a question mark at quarterback, but it’s not a bad thing either. Alabama has amassed talent as well as any program in the country, and that will keep the Tide in contention in 2025.