My oh my, are computer models correct in their high rankings for the Alabama Crimson Tide? The algorithms are devoid of emotion, but it sure seems like they love the Crimson Tide.
Early in a season, human polls might be more accurate than computer models. So maybe Alabama is college football's No. 10 team, as ranked in the latest AP Poll. Credible models indicate Alabama is better than that.
Bill Connelly, Jeff Sagarin, Kenneth Massey, and Brian Fremeau provide those models. Connelly's SP+ model is similar to the AP Poll rankings. He ranks Alabama No. 10 and the fourth-highest-ranked SEC team. Fremeau's FEI ratings have Alabama No. 5 and the SEC's No. 2 team, behind Georgia. Massey has the Crimson Tide at No. 4, and below only Texas among SEC teams. Jeff Sagarin has been doing mathematical calculations for decades and has Alabama as the SEC's top team and ranked No. 3 overall.
ESPN's FPI model has Alabama ranked No. 7, up two spots after Week 2. ESPN is the ultimate sizzle factory, but admits that the FPI becomes more accurate as the season progresses. The same is true of the other models. By midseason, the models have enough data for reasonable accuracy.
Rankings of Alabama Crimson Tide Opponents
- Florida State - FEI No. 36; SP+ No. 45; Sagarin No. 48; and Massey No. 52
- South Carolina - FEI No. 24; SP+ No. 17; Sagarin No. 20; and Massey No. 31
- Mississippi State - FEI No. 29; SP+ No. 32; Sagarin No. 16; and Massey No. 24
- Georgia - FEI No. No. 2; SP+ No. 1; Sagarin No. 21; and Massey No. 5
- Tennessee - FEI No. 15; SP+ No. 11; Sagarin No. 15; and Massey No. 13
- Texas A&M - FEI No. 11; SP+ No. 7; Sagarin No. 5; and Massey No. 10
- LSU - FEI No. 20; SP+ No. 8; Sagarin No. 4; and Massey No. 14
- Vanderbilt - FEI No. 34; SP+ No. 35; Sagarin No. 35; and Massey No. 37
- Auburn - FEI No. 27; SP+ No. 30; Sagarin No. 14; and Massey No. 23
The wide range of the computer rankings are typical early in the season. In contrast, the rankings for Alabama are rather consistent.
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