The currently prevailing opinion about the SEC and the NCAA Tournament is that the conference will get fewer teams than last season. The Alabama Crimson Tide and nine other SEC teams are included in current Bracketology projections. Another SEC team is sometimes projected in the 'First Four Out' group.
Every 'expert' Bracketologist will change their projections dozens of times between now and Selection Sunday on Mar. 15. But mid-January is not too early for fans to start paying attention.
On Monday, The Field of 68 put out its first 2025-26 bracket projection. They can be commended for waiting until now. Other sources began publishing bracket projections last spring.
Alabama Crimson Tide Bracket Projection
Alabama is currently the same seed it had in the 2024 NCAA Tournament that led to the Crimson Tide's first Final Four appearance. Alabama is a 4-seed, projected in the West Region. Also projected in the West are Arizona (1-seed), Gonzaga (2-seed), and Michigan State (3-seed). Crimson Tide players would love a rematch with the Tigers and the Zags.
The SEC's highest projected seed is the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Dores are at a 3-seed in the Midwest Region. The Florida Gators are projected as a 5-seed in the South Region. Arkansas is also projected as a 5-seed in the Midwest Region. In the East Region, the Georgia Bulldogs are projected as a 7-seed. In the South Region, the Tennessee Vols are projected as an 8-seed.
The SEC currently has four bubble teams projected in the Big Dance field, and one more just outside the field. The bubble teams are the Kentucky Wildcats and the Texas A&M Aggies, both projected as 9-seeds. Auburn is projected as a10-seed in the West Region. As a projected 11-seed, Missouri would open the tournament with a play-in game. The Texas Longhorns are currently the third team in a First Four Out group.
ESPN's BPI computer model does not compete with Joe Lunardi's Bracketology, but the model projects the probability of winning regular-season conference championships. ESPN gives Florida a 74.3% probability of winning the SEC regular season. Only two other SEC teams have a double-digit probability: Vanderbilt at 14.9% and Alabama at 12.6%.
Seven SEC basketball teams, including Auburn, are given less than a 1% probability of winning the SEC regular season.