Alabama Crimson Tide catches a big break for Homecoming Game

It is difficult to imagine luck shining on the 2024 Alabama Crimson Tide. So far, it has not been that kind of season. That changes on Saturday against Missouri. The Tigers are a good defensive team that has surrendered only 1.52 points per drive this season. That stat is fifth-best among SEC football teams. Alabama Football has allowed 1.66 points per drive, ranking eighth-best among SEC teams. In national rankings for the stat, Missouri is No. 14 and Alabama is No. 25.

Those stats are not adjusted for schedule difficulty. In ESPN's calculation for team defensive efficiency that accounts for schedule difficulty, the Crimson Tide's defense is better than Missouri's. Among all FBS teams, Alabama is ranked No. 15 and Missouri is ranked No. 28.

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Efficiency

An Alabama win on Saturday should improve Alabama's defensive efficiency ranking. Two of Missouri's top three offensive weapons are not expected to play. Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden will play. Tigers quarterback Brady Cook and running back Nate Noel were listed as doubtful on Wednesday night's SEC availability report. Multiple Missouri beat reporters speculate that doubtful means almost no chance. If Cook or Noel are healthy enough to try, they will not be 100%. Cook with a high ankle sprain might be able to hobble around a pocket, but would probably not be a running threat. Even when healthy, Cook has not been much of a running threat since the 2022 season.

Also doubtful for the Tigers is wide receiver Mookie Cooper. Had Brady Cook not connected with Cooper on a 78-yard reception last Saturday, the Tigers' comeback against Auburn might not have happened.

The backup quarterback for Missouri is Drew Pyne. As a sophomore at Notre Dame in 2022, Pyne passed for over 2,000 yards, with a completion rate of 64.6%. He played little at Arizona State in the 2023 season and has played in only four of Missouri's games this season. In his limited action, Pyne's completion rate has been 67.4%.

The Missouri offense would be less without Brady Cook, but Pyne is a capable QB. For perspective consider national QB rankings for the 2022 season. Pyne's rating of 155.27 was higher that season than Michigan's JJ McCarthy, Oklahoma's Dillon Gabriel, Washington's Michael Penix Jr., Utah's Cam Rising, LSU's Jayden Daniels, and others who succeeded in subsequent seasons.

Most Alabama football fans are optimistic the Crimson Tide will perform well against Missouri in an important bounce-back game. If the Tigers's roster was 100%, Alabama, as the better team should have delivered a win. With Missouri not near 100%, Alabama Homecoming celebrations should not be tarnished.