Two SEC football teams control their SEC Championship Game destiny. One is the Alabama Crimson Tide. The other one is the Texas A&M Aggies. All SEC teams with one or two conference losses remain in contention for a December trip to Atlanta. Mathematically, even 3-loss LSU is in contention, but potential tiebreakers will narrow the group to far less than the current 10 teams with three or fewer conference losses.
Currently, only five SEC teams have no chance to make the SEC Championship Game: Kentucky, Arkansas, Mississippi State, South Carolina, and Auburn. Auburn, South Carolina, and Mississippi State fans can hope for a postseason trip to Birmingham or Shreveport. Arkansas and Kentucky fans cannot wait for the basketball season to begin and an end to their football misery.
Week 10 games will eliminate at least one team from SEC Championship Game contention. The loser of Oklahoma at Tennessee will drop to three SEC losses. Either Vanderbilt or Texas will fall into the 2-loss group of teams. Georgia and Ole Miss must hold serve with the Bulldogs facing Florida in Jacksonville, and Ole Miss hosting South Carolina.
Alabama Crimson Tide and Remaining Strength of Schedule
In Week 11, the Alabama Crimson Tide can officially knock LSU out of SEC Championship Game contention. Also in Week 11, Texas A&M travels to Missouri, and Vanderbilt hosts Auburn.
Comparing the two teams with SEC 5-0 records and the four teams with one conference loss, what teams have the easiest remaining games? According to the ESPN FPI, the national 'Remaining SOS' rankings have Ole Miss at No. 59, Georgia at No. 30, Alabama at No. 29, Texas A&M at No. 15, Vanderbilt at No. 8, and Texas at No. 5.
According to FanDuel, the SEC's top betting favorites to win the SEC Championship Game are Alabama (+115), Texas A&M (+220), and Georgia (+500). Ole Miss is the fourth favorite at +1200.
If the top two favorites are unchanged after Week 14 games, Alabama Crimson Tide fans will want an SEC Championship win. Win or lose, both Alabama and the Aggies would make the Playoff field. The winner would get a bye, and the loser would likely become the No. 5 seed, hosting a First Round Game.
There is another scenario. With a close SEC Championship Game, due to the new seeding rules, both teams could be awarded with byes. Some Alabama football fans might be happier to get a No. 5 seed. That would give the Crimson Tide a home game against the No. 12 seed, while the No. 4 seed sits out awaiting the winner. Some argue the bye weeks made Oregon and Georgia a bit rusty last season. More likely, at least in the case of Oregon, their Playoff loss occurred because they played a better team.