With half the college football regular season finished, the Alabama Crimson Tide has the SEC's best chances for championship and Playoff success. The latest ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) ranks Alabama not only as the SEC's most probable team to win the SEC Championship at 49. 6 %, but also with an 83.4% probability of making the Playoff field.
ESPN's metrics have just four SEC teams with a greater than 33.6% probability to make the Playoffs. The other three SEC football teams are Texas A&M (78.8%), Georgia (72.3%), and Ole Miss (59.6%).
In the overall FBS FPI, Alabama retained the No. 3 spot after beating Missouri. Georgia also head steady at No. 6. After beating Oklahoma, the Texas Longhorns moved up one spot to No. 7. Texas A&M moved up two spots to No. 11. After a lackluster win over Washington State, the Ole Miss Rebels dropped five spots to No. 12. The Tennessee Vols also dropped; two spots to No. 13. Missouri's loss to Alabama moved the Tigers up three spots to No. 15, one spot ahead of Vanderbilt at No. 16.
The SEC has five more teams in the FPI top 30 teams. LSU is No. 18, Oklahoma, No. 20, Auburn, No. 24, Florida, No. 27, and South Carolina, No. 30.
The Big Ten impressively has three teams in the FPI's top five teams. The SEC has 13 teams in the FPI's top 30 teams, compared to 10 for the B1G. Combined the ACC and the Big 12 have six teams in the FPI's top 30 teams.
ESPN Alabama Crimson Tide Game Projections
ESPN Analytics gives the Alabama Crimson Tide a 72.4% probability of beating the Tennessee Vols. Based on that calculation, the Vols have the highest likelihood of upsetting the Crimson Tide in the remaining regular-season games. Alabama is given a 74.4% chance of beating Auburn in Jordan-Hare, a 76% chance of beating LSU, and a 78.1% chance of beating South Carolina in Columbia.
One data point dragging the Alabama Crimson Tide in the FPI rankings is Special Teams Efficiency. Alabama is ranked No. 80 among all FBS teams.