It is stretch run time for the Alabama Crimson Tide. The first edition of the only rankings that matter comes out on Tuesday night when the CFB Playoff Selection Committee offers its first Top 25 rankings.
Power ranking the SEC will be a focus of attention on Tuesday night. How many SEC football teams are ranked in the committee's top 12 teams will be interesting. Projections are that it will be four, five, or maybe even six. Six would send shockwaves across the college football world. Using ESPN's FPI as a guide, the SEC has three 'near-lock' Playoff teams: Texas A&M (96.4%), Alabama (92.5%), and Georgia (85.5%), with Ole Miss next at 77.6%.
Eight teams are given a 74.3% or higher probability of making the Playoffs, with Indiana and Ohio State above the SEC teams, and Oregon and BYU below them.
It is possible that in the end, the Big 12 will gain BYU and Texas Tech in the Playoff. At this point, it appears only one ACC team will make it.
SEC Power Ranking
After Week 10, eight SEC football teams have two losses or fewer. The other eight remain significant only to the extent of upsets, which can spoil another team's season.
Not matching ESPN's FPI, my ranking of the SEC's top eight is: 1) Texas A&M, 2) Alabama Crimson Tide, 3) Georgia, 4) Ole Miss, 5) Texas, 6) Oklahoma, 7) Vanderbilt, and 8) Missouri.
In the bottom eight are (in descending order) Tennessee, LSU, Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Auburn.
Alabama Crimson Tide - SEC Championship Game and Playoffs
Alabama is in a strong position. If the Crimson Tide slips and loses to LSU or Oklahoma, a 10-2 Crimson Tide should become a Playoff team. ESPN's Playoff predictor calculates Alabama at 10-2, not advancing to Atlanta, would have a better Playoff chance than a 10-3 Alabama that loses the SEC Championship Game.
It is in that second scenario that the perceived strength of the SEC will be important. As SEC teams add losses, rumblings have started that the conference is overrated. The rumblings will grow. The Selection Committee will not be immune to them. Hopefully, the committee's new schedule strength metric will provide an accurate and fair assessment of the strength of all teams.
A closing dollop of trepidation is that Oklahoma, coming off a bye week, could be the healthier team when it faces the Alabama Crimson Tide on Nov. 15.