Except for the first day of the month, February has been kind to the Alabama Crimson Tide. That first day could not have been much worse as the Florida Gators trounced Alabama 100-77. An eight-game win streak has followed. Some bracketologists now project the Crimson Tide as an NCAA Tournament 3-seed.
One of those bracket projections comes from CBS Sports. Alabama is No. 12 on the CBS seed line, projected to open the Big Dance in the West Region against UC Irvine. Alabama would advance to a second-round game against the winner of Wisconsin vs. South Florida. If USF knocked off the Badgers, the second-round game would be between two old friends. Former Alabama assistant Bryan Hodgson coaches the Bulls.
The projected 1-seed in the West Region is Arizona, and the projected 2-seed is Purdue. Getting past Arizona would be a major challenge for the Crimson Tide, but the Boilermakers have lost three of their last four games and are beatable for Alabama.
Is this conversation premature? It absolutely is. Alabama has much work to do, beginning on Tuesday night in Athens. ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide only a 54.2% probability of beating the Georgia Bulldogs.
Then there is the SEC Tournament in which the Crimson Tide is a probable 2-seed. Based on current standings and tiebreakers, Alabama's second opponent in Nashville would likely be Arkansas, and in the SEC Championship Game, the Florida Gators.
An Alabama Crimson Tide NCAA Tournament 3-seed
At the minimum, gaining (or holding on) to a Big Dance 3-seed would require beating Georgia, Auburn, and two SEC Tournament wins, plus not losing to Florida badly in the final. A loss to Georgia or Auburn and a 3-seed would likely require a win in the SEC Championship Game.
Since we're already swirling in conjecture, let's consider some real fancy. Would Alabama benefit from losing a game between now and the NCAA Tournament? If the win streak goes from eight to 13, the Crimson Tide would have to push the streak to 19 wins to win the NCAA Tournament. No NCAA Tournament Champion has won more than 13 straight since Indiana went 32-0 in the 1975-76 season.