According to FanDuel, the Alabama Crimson Tide is a 5.5-point favorite over the Oklahoma Sooners. ESPN's analytics give Alabama a 71.6% win probability. Four credible computer models predict an Alabama win with a winning margin as slim as one point to as high as 10 points. One lesser-known, but also solid model has Oklahoma as the favorite by a score of 21.3 - 20.6, correlating to the game ending in an impossible 21-21 tie.
Much is riding on the game's outcome for both teams. Alabama can lock down a Playoff berth and gain an SEC Championship Game appearance (subject to unpredictable SEC games' outcome and the SEC's byzantine tie-breaker rules).
The game is not a must-win for the Crimson Tide, but it is one for Brent Venables' team. An Oklahoma loss would drop the Sooners to 7-3 and end their Playoff chances.
Alabama will certainly strive to pay the Sooners back for what happened in Norman last season. Revenge is a valid talking point, but late in a season, a true championship contender should focus on the present rather than the past.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma Predictions
- Bill Connelly's SP+ model gives Alabama a 53% win probability and a winning score of 25-24. Take away however many points the model gives Alabama for the Bryant-Denny crowd, and the model calculates the Sooners as the better team.
- Jeff Sagarin gives Alabama a 75% win probability, and a winning score of 27-18.
- The Massey Rankings give Alabama a 81% win probability, and a winning score of 30-20.
- Brian Fremeau's FEI model gives Alabama a 71.3% win probability and a winning score of 27-19.
- The College Football Nerds model has the Sooners winning with a score projection of 21.3 - 20. 6. The model's largest apparent determinant gives the Sooners' defense a large advantage over the Crimson Tide running game, and it calculates the Alabama passing game and the Oklahoma defense as nearly equal.
Given the model predictions, what is the outcome to be? As I write, I'm shaking my head in a "don't know" response. It is troubling that the Nerds' model projects an Alabama rushing yards per carry average of 2.01 yards and sees the Crimson Tide having almost no advantage via its passing game.