Against the Tennessee Vols, the Alabama Crimson Tide outperformed most published score predictions and the Vegas point spread. By late afternoon last Saturday, the spread had edged up from Alabama -8.5 points to the Crimson Tide -9.5 points. The Crimson Tide won by 17 points.
Brian Fremeau's FEI computer model did better than the sportsbooks' number wizards. Fremeau's game prediction was Alabama 33 - Tennessee 22. Fremeau, Vegas, and every other algorithm never provide locks. The models do provide important calculations that compare the strengths and weaknesses of each team.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. South Carolina Computer Model Projections
This week FanDuel as the Crimson Tide as an 11.5 point road favorite.
- Brian Fremeau's opponent-adjusted FEI model has the Crimson Tide winning by a score of 31-16, with an 84.1% probability of winning the game.
- Jeff Sagarin's model is somewhat of an outlier. It has Alabama winning, and almost totally shutting down the Gamecocks' offense in a 25-9 win, with a 71% probability of Alabama winning the game.
- The Massey Ratings also project the Crimson Tide as a winner, by a score of 31-17. The Tide's win probability, projected by Massey, is 88%.
- Bill Connelly's SP+ model projects an Alabama Crimson Tide win of 29 - 19, with a win probability of 74%.
- The College Football Nerds model has the Crimson Tide winning 29-17.
Some Alabama football fans are worried the Crimson Tide might allow itself to be hampered by a 'trap game'. Such concern is logical, following four big wins and with Alabama being a heavy favorite. Great teams do not allow themselves such diminished focus. Alabama is not yet a great team, but since Sept. 1, the Tide has been a focused one. Kalen DeBoer has insisted his team must keep the pedal down. There is no indication that Alabama's team leaders and other key players disagree with their coach.