What can be expected in a game that resembles a trap game for the Alabama Crimson Tide? As inconceivable as it feels for Alabama fans, the Crimson Tide could be in trouble if its focus slips enough to improve Vandy's chances. That should and probably will not happen. Not after last season's embarrassing loss to the Commodores, motivating the Crimson Tide.
The Commodores are a stronger team than they were last season. At the same time, their 5-0 record has been accomplished against a weak schedule. The road win over Virginia Tech is tarnished by the Hokies' 2-3 record, including a loss to Old Dominion. A Power Four 31-7 road win over South Carolina was impressive, but the Gamecocks' 3-2 record is suspect with wins over Virginia Tech, South Carolina State, and Kentucky.
The Alabama Crimson Tide staff should fully understand what Vandy's offense can do. This season, the Dores have weapons beyond Diego Pavia and Eli Stowers. Brock Taylor gives Vandy a field-goal kicking advantage. Junior Sherrill is a solid wide receiver who complements Vandy's most productive wideout, Tre Richardson. Clark Lea has one of the most seasoned lineups in college football, most of his starters being fourth or fifth-year players.
Computer Models and Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Vanderbilt
Opinions vary about how the accuracy of computer models. They sometimes indicate very different assessments of teams than human polls. One current example is the Alabama Crimson Tide ranked No. 3 in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) and No. 11 in the Coaches Poll. The best thing about the CFB Playoff system is no ranking is released in its human poll until November.
Computer models may be suspect until much later in the season, but their data-derived projections are worthy of consideration.
Below are projections from four computer models about the probability of Alabama beating Vanderbilt.
- ESPN Analytics - ESPN models value the Alabama Crimson Tide highly, but project just a 74.3% probability of Alabama winning.
- Jeff Sagarin - The long-time algorithms used by Sagarin give Alabama a 78% probability of winning.
- Bill Connelly's SP+ model projects a much different potential outcome, with the Crimson Tide's win probability at only 56%, and a final score of 29-27.
- Alabama football fans are always interested in projections by College Football Nerds. Their model has the Crimson Tide losing to Vanderbilt, 33.5-30.7.