How wary should Alabama be about Saturday's trip to Starkville? Mississippi State fans have every reason to be giddy about their Bulldogs. Data minutiae tracker Bill Connelly calculated that, over the season's four weeks, the Bulldogs are college football's second-best overachieving team.
Alabama made Connelly's list of the top 17 most overachieving teams. But the Crimson Tide was way behind the Bulldogs.
Alabama has lost in Starkville twice this century, in 2000 and 2007. Sylvester Croom's 2006 MSU team came to Tuscaloosa in 2006 and physically whipped the Crimson Tide, winning 24-16. Going back to 1958, State has seven wins over Alabama, balanced against 59 losses. But it's not always easy for the Tide to beat State.
Alabama's 2017 National Championship team went to Starkville in November. The Bulldogs were ranked No. 18. No. 1-ranked Alabama trailed in the fourth quarter and needed two scores to win 31-24. The game-winning score came with 25 seconds left on a touchdown pass from Jalen Hurts to DeVonta Smith.
Will Alabama need heroics on Saturday?
Few college football experts predict the Bulldogs to beat the Crimson Tide. Every CBS Sports expert picked Alabama to win. Of the eight, only Brad Crawford predicted that Alabama would not cover the spread. Alabama was also the unanimous pick from seven USA Today college football experts. A couple of outliers from other sources predict a Mississippi State upset.
Beating the Bulldogs in the cowbell-clanging cauldron of Davis-Wade Stadium will not be easy this season. The history that so favors the Crimson Tide will not matter. No doubt every Mississippi State player expects to win.
Arguably, the Crimson Tide is the better team, but Jeff Lebby has an atypical level of talent that can challenge Kalen DeBoer's roster. The Crimson Tide is more injury-depleted, with an offensive line starter out and two key rotational players out from Kane Wommack's defense.
The game could be college football's best in Week 5. In the end, one fanbase will be crushed. Alabama fans are ready to roll.
Note: Alabama history data provided by Sports Reerence and mcubed.net
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