We are one day away from a Rose Bowl showdown between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers, with a spot for the College Football Playoff semifinals on the line. Alabama has had its share of impressive victories over the season, but has also fallen short in key areas as the year has played out. Alabama can still be a powerhouse, however, and beating Indiana isn't impossible if the Tide steps up in these three key areas.
1. Stop the Hoosiers on 3rd down
Looking at the College Football leaderboard, the Hoosiers have one key category to address. Specifically, Indiana ranks first in the nation with a 55.8% conversion rate on third down. Limiting Hoosier drives and stopping them on third down means less time of possession, and keeping the ball out of Fernando Mendoza's hand will be paramount if the Tide looks to roll the Hoosiers Thursday night.
We know how crucial it is to dominate time of possession, and that is why Alabama's 40th-ranked 3rd down conversion percentage will need to improve on New Year's Day. Getting decent chunk plays on first and second down will be the difference in this game, as anything over 3rd and five could spell disaster for an Alabama drive. Look for Ty Simpson and the passing game to use quick-gain plays, such as slants and screens, to move the chains.
2. Outmatch Indiana's redzone defense
When it comes to the Red Zone defense, the Crimson Tide ranks 19th, a trend that must continue tomorrow night. The importance of only giving up three instead of seven goes without saying, and it will be no small task, as Indiana's 90.8% conversion rate in the red zone is top-20 in the nation. Offensively, Bama ranks slightly behind the Hoosiers, at just north of 88%, but the Hoosiers' 25th-best red zone defense will also be looking to keep Bama out of the end zone.
Commit to the run, and force the Hoosiers to throw the ball on second and third down. Limiting vertical space and forcing Indiana to play one-dimensionally will be key to keeping the Hoosiers out of the endzone. Look for Alabama to disguise coverage pre-snap while maintaining an eagle eye on Mendoza, in case he takes off. With such tight coverage in a compressed field, spying Mendoza to keep him honest may come into play, as he will burn you with his legs if you don't account for his ability to run.
3. Sell out to stop the run
Overall, the Crimson Tide must stop the run game of the Hoosiers. Given Indiana's 10th best in the nation, 221.2 YPG on the ground, it will be imperative to sell out here. Alabama allows 120.6 YPG on the ground per game, and they will need to keep this in check for four quarters. Indiana's ability to run the ball is a reason they are -7 favorites, given the other teams' lower chance of scoring due to their dominance in the TOP.
Take away Indiana's run game, and you have a real shot at an upset. Indiana's pass offense isn't quite as stout, and its run game is averaging 251.6 YPG. That is still a high mark, 42nd-best in the nation, but against an Alabama team whose defense will be hungry to prove itself, this is an area where the Tide can find success. If the Tide can stop the run, this game may turn into a shootout, where mistakes are more common, and Bama can take advantage. Getting Indiana to turn the ball over may be the difference in this contest.