Before getting into the meat of this post, a quick clarification is needed. I am bullish on the 2025 Alabama football team. I can envision a worst case, but I expect the Crimson Tide to improve significantly and clearly be a Playoff team, whether or not Alabama plays in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
After removing my crimson-tinted glasses, I can see why others have doubts. There is no proven quarterback. If Ty Simpson comes up short of 'good enough' to lead the offense on a championship run, Alabama could lose games while Keelon Russell (or Austin Mack) gains starter experience. More peril could come from a lack of experienced depth on the offensive line.
Since no injury is predictable, the worst-case scenario does not include 'what if' injuries. Schedules, however, cannot be ignored. The Crimson Tide does not have the most difficult schedule among SEC teams. That distinction might go to Mississippi State or Arkansas. The Florida Gators have another difficult schedule. Using projected 2025 SP+ rankings, ESPN has Oklahoma with the most difficult schedule in college football. ESPN gives the Crimson Tide the SEC's 10th-most difficult schedule and No. 11 overall. Ranked as tougher than Bamma, along with Oklahoma, are Florida, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Kentucky, LSU, and Texas A&M. Pete Fiutak of College Football News ranked Alabama's schedule as the SEC's 4th- most difficult.
It will be midseason before any Strength of Schedule calculations have real merit. Until then, Alabama's eight-week run and seven games: at Georgia, Vandy, at Missouri, Tennessee, at South Carolina, bye, LSU, and Oklahoma is plenty demanding.
2025 Alabama Football Best Case Scenario
The offensive line is improved, despite the loss of Tyler Booker. Pass protection is not an issue. The defense is better than it was in the second half of the 2024 season, which was quite good. By October, Ty Simpson is better than a Game Manager-plus, consistent on short and mid-range throws and able to hit long-range explosive plays, and keeps defenses honest with timely runs. Alabama goes to the SEC Championship Game at 11-1 or 12-0.
2025 Alabama Crimson Tide Worst Case Scenario
Except for a better defense, nothing else in the best-case scenario happens. Starting in October, Keelon Russell goes into frequent rotation with Simpson, and if he earns the starting job, it is not until late in the season. Alabama loses to Georgia, loses at either Missouri or South Carolina, and loses to LSU in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide finishes the regular season at 9-3 and does not play in the SEC Championship Game. Texas, Georgia, and LSU get Playoff slots while the Crimson Tide sweats out the Selection Committee selecting a fourth SEC team.
What will happen? A too early guess is the Crimson Tide finishes the regular season at 11-1 or 10-2. RTR.