Winter came Saturday night in Norman, OK. It was not the weather, but the winter-like bleakness Alabama football fans must endure. Efforts to make sense of what happened against the Sooners feel futile. The Crimson Tide was inexcusably bad and blame must be assigned to Kalen DeBoer, Nick Sheridan, and Jalen Milroe. Too many others were complicit.
Can the Crimson Tide find enough pieces to cobble together a respectable season? Many Alabama football fans think the answer is no. In contrast to pessimism are the latest ESPN FPI rankings. ESPN's algorithm has been bullish on the Crimson Tide all season. After Alabama was dominated by Oklahoma, the Crimson Tide dipped only two spots to No. 4. The FPI bumped the Sooners up four spots to No. 23.
Calculating Playoff chances, the ESPN algorithm gives Alabama Football a 37.4% probability of making the Playoff field. In the FPI, only 11 teams are higher, but a couple would have to tumble for Alabama to sneak into the field. If the CFB Playoff Selection Committee ranked the teams the same as the FPI (they will not), Alabama would be bumped out by a lower-ranked Big 12 Champion.
The disgust of many Alabama Crimson Tide fans will not be abetted by a slim chance to make the Playoffs. One reason is the Iron Bowl outcome is now in question. There are other reasons. The biggest other reason is doubt in Kalen DeBoer and Jalen Milroe. Doubt is a word too mild to define the perspective of some Alabama fans.
Alabama Football - A Playoff Pretender
On Sunday, Alabama fans scoffed at ESPN's Heather Dinich for predicting the Crimson Tide might be ranked No. 12 on Tuesday night. Even if Dinich is correct, Alabama would need help from multiple teams to make the final 12-team bracket. SMU would need to lose a second game and not win the ACC Championship. South Carolina would need to beat Clemson. An unexpected Vanderbilt upset of Tennessee might allow the Tide to slide in.
A fair question for Alabama fans is does the Crimson Tide deserve (in any scenario) a Playoff at-large bid? A close win in the Iron Bowl might provide a resounding no.