The stat most favoring the LSU Bengal Tigers over Alabama Football is offensive success on third downs. The Bengal Tigers have a significant statistical advantage over the Alabama Crimson Tide.
LSU leads the SEC at 49.07%, while Alabama is No. 10 among SEC teams at 40.22%. The nearly nine-percentage-point difference could determine the outcome of a close game. Using the same data source and looking at only conference games, the Crimson Tide is at 30.77%, next to last in the SEC. LSU; at 45.16%, is the SEC's No. 1 against SEC opponents.
More drilled-down stats are available to ESPN subscribers. Discussions on Alabama message boards highlight the glaring fact that on 3rd-and-long, the Crimson Tide offense is one of the worst among all FBS teams.
Finger-pointing at the problem can be aimed in multiple directions. All of it stems from the fact that when the other team knows Alabama must throw, it has frequent success pressuring Jalen Milroe. Alabama's pass protection has been vulnerable to speed rushers all season. Too often Alabama digs offensive holes with penalties. The results are not just failures in pass protection. Sometimes Jalen Milroe holds the ball longer than any offensive line can consistently block. There are also scheme questions. Is there a flaw in Alabama's play-calling that puts it in too many third-and-long situations?
When the situation is 3rd-and-10+, Alabama poses little challenge to opposing defenses. This season, Alabama has completed only 28.6% of its passes on 3rd-and-long. Only three FBS teams are worse.
Despite all the offensive problems, Jalen Milroe and his offensive teammates have performed well overall. , one spot below LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. In Offensive Points Per Drive, Alabama Football is No. 12 among all FBS teams. Alabama produces 2.9 points per drive. LSU, ranked No. 33, produces 2.73 points.
Alabama Football Offense must be more than 'Boom or Bust'
The Crimson Tide's offensive salvation has been explosive plays. Alabama's offense has produced 51 passing plays of 15+ yards and 21 passing plays of 25+ yards. Alabama's overall completion percentage of 67.3% is third best among SEC teams, behind Ole Miss and Texas.
An overly simple but important factor for Saturday night is the team that most frequently pressures the opposing quarterback will have a major advantage. Neither quarterback is especially good when pressured. One solution for the Crimson Tide would be rushing success, while mostly shutting down LSU's rushing offense only averages 3.43 yards per carry against SEC teams.