Alabama Football Playoff chances and four undefeated teams not worthy of at-large bids

Few college football pundits include Alabama Football in their CFB Playoff 12-team field predictions. Excluding a team with two losses before November makes sense. Doing so in December may make no sense at all.

An elimination game looms for the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU. No matter how heavily favored the Tide, every game for Alabama is an elimination game. That reality clouds the perspective of which teams will deserve the Playoff at large bids.

Alabama Football at 10-2 a worthy Playoff contender

Based on Strength of Schedule (SOS), Alabama Football, at 10-2 will deserve an at-large bid.

Using ESPN's calculations of SOS, the Crimson Tide has played the second most difficult schedule of Playoff contenders. The Georgia Bulldogs have the No. 1 SOS. Alabama has No. 5. LSU is at No. 8. No other Playoff contender has a top 20, SOS.

Other top Playoff contenders have played much easier schedules than Alabama. The Oregon Ducks have an SOS of No. 63; Penn State is No. 64; Ohio State is No. 39; Miami is No. 47; Clemson is No. 75 and Texas is No. 44. Except for Miami, the other five contenders finish the regular season with more difficult schedules. The remaining SOS for Oregon is No. 21; Penn State No. 16; Ohio State No. 14; Clemson No. 28 and Texas No. 20. Alabama's remaining SOS is No. 31.

There are four currently undefeated Power Four teams that have played weak schedules. They are BYU at No. 55; Iowa State at No. 86; Pitt at No. 101 and Indiana at No. 106. The remaining SOS for the four are Indiana No. 17, Pitt No. 21, Iowa State No. 39, and BYU No. 52.

Due to their weak schedules, should BYU, Indiana, Iowa State, and Pitt lose a game, they should not be Playoff teams. The exception would be conference championship wins. Otherwise, as one-loss teams, it would be a mistake for the CFB Playoff Selection Committee to award then an at-large bid over a two-loss team Alabama team with a far more difficult SOS.

Heading into college football's Week 10, Richard Johnson, writing for CBS Sports, provided a Sportsline calculation of the chances current undefeated teams will finish the regular season undefeated. BYU was given a 12% chance, Iowa State 9%, Indiana 7%, and Pitt 1%.

The Selection Committee has vaguely stated that SOS will be a factor in their final selections. If it is a significant factor, a two-loss Crimson Tide, with a win over Georgia, should make the Playoff field.