Outside the world of Alabama football fans, everyone else that follows college football expects Indiana to beat the Crimson Tide. There are reasons to justify the opinion. The Hoosiers are college football's No. 1 team and the No. 1 seed in the CFB Playoff field. From 3-9 under Tom Allen in 2023, Curt Cignetti has rapidly elevated the Hoosiers to a two season record of 24-2. Cignetti has been voted the AP Coach of the Year in the last two seasons. His quarterback, Fernando Mendoza is the winner of the Heisman Trophy, the Maxwell, Davey O'Brien, and Walter Camp awards, and was named the AP player of the Year.
No wonder the Alabama Crimson Tide is the underdog in the Rose Bowl, Playoff Quarterfinal.
ESPN Analytics gives the Crimson Tide just a 28.6% probability of beating Indiana. Predictions are not out for every top computer model, but Jeff Sagarin's model calculates that the Hoosiers have a 66% probability of winning with a projected score of 35-19.
Before Curt Cignetti, Indiana had never produced a double-digit win season. Their nine-win ceiling happened only twice, in 1945 and 1967. The 1967 Indiana team made the program's only trip to a Rose Bowl, which the Hoosiers lost. Before Cignetti, no Hoosiers' coach ever won more than 59.4% of their Indiana games. In 10 seasons, Lee Corso won just 37.8%, which leads us to a "not so fast" consideration about whether the Hoosiers are overrated.
ESPN's FPI ranks Indiana with a No. 28 Strength of Schedule (SOS), compared to Alabama Football at No. 6. Brian Fremeau's SOS, calculated on how an 'average' team would fare (ALS) has Alabama having college football's toughest schedule and Indiana at No. 17. Those are not insignificant differences.
Alabama Football and Indiana Schedule Comparison
Using Fremeau's opponent-adjusted offensive and defensive ratings (FEI) should provide a sound comparison of the Crimson Tide and the Hoosiers.
Beginning with Week Four of the season, Indiana's best five wins against FEI Offense Efficienct teams are: Oregon (No. 3), Ohio State (No. 9), Illinois (No. 17), Penn State (No. 23), and Iowa (No. 55). Also going back to Week four Alabama's best five wins against FEI Offense Efficient teams are: Vanderbilt (No. 1), Georgia (No. 8), Tennessee (No. 10), Missouri (No. 33), and Auburn (No. 51). That four win over Top 25 offenses for the Hoosiers and three wins against Top 10 offenses for the Crimson Tide.
Doing the same comparison based on Defensive Efficiency of opponents, Indiana's best six wins are: Ohio State (No. 1), Oregon (No. 6), Iowa (No. 9), Wisconsin (No. 24), Maryland (No. 41), and Penn State (No. 42). Alabama's best seven wins are: Oklahoma (No. 4), LSU (No. 8), Auburn (No. 12), South Carolina (No. 14), Georgia (No. 15), and Missouri (No.16). Alabama clearly has more wins against better defenses.
At 13-0, Indiana should be the favorite in the Rose Bowl. The question is whether Alabama, not playing equal to its potential, but close to it, is actually the better team. The Crimson Tide has weaknesses. Indiana might be somewhat overrated. The game might be close to a toss-up.