With a small point spread separating the teams and computer models differing on the game's favorite, Alabama Football and Missouri offer two clear knowns. One known fact is that Missouri running back Ahmad Hardy is the SEC's most productive running back. The other is that Ty Simpson is the SEC's highest-rated quarterback.
The two stars will not be on the field at the same time, so the game will not feature a head-to-head, best vs best. Still, how the Missouri defense performs against Simpson and how much success Kane Wommack's defense has against Hardy are the primary dynamics to determine Saturday's winner.
Ahmad Hardy did not exactly come out of nowhere to become a leading Heisman contender. Last season, as a freshman for Louisiana-Monroe, Hardy rushed for 1,351 yards at a 5.7-yard carry average. Sun Belt talent is often considered to be inferior to SEC talent, but after stepping up in class, Hardy has performed even better. Not only does he lead the SEC at 146 rushing yards per game, but he is also No. 1 in the FBS.
In allowing opponents to rush for 4.65 yards per carry, Alabama is No. 15 among SEC teams. The Crimson Tide defense has improved from its early-season missed tackles problem, but it will be tested by Hardy. He leads the FBS in breaking tackles.
Ty Simpson is the SEC's best quarterback in two stats. He leads in average passing yards per game at 295.6 yards and in Passer Rating at 174.7. Using Defensive Passing Rating as a measurement, Missouri is No. 3 among SEC teams. A different take comes from Truman's Tales, citing that Missouri "needs to fix (its) secondary. Perhaps that is because the Missouri defense has been so good at run defense. In the Missouri win over South Carolina, the Gamecocks rushed for a sack-adjusted 19 yards on 12 carries. LaNorris Sellers did pass for 302 yards in South Carolina's 29-20 loss to Missouri.
The Tigers are not one-dimensional on offense. Beau Pribula has been a pleasant surprise since transferring in from Penn State. James Franklin might be wishing he had held on to Pribula, and jettisoned Drew Allar instead. Missouri's Kevin Coleman is one of the SEC's most productive receivers. Quietly, a second Missouri running back is also a dangerous weapon. Jamal Roberts is carrying the ball for a blistering 7.29-yard average carry.
Note: Various stats provided by Sports Reference and cfbstats.com
It should be added that Missouri's impressive rushing stats have come against an ESPN-calculated SOS of No. 109 among FBS teams. The Alabama football SOS is rated No. 3.