Across the SEC there is no shortage of head coach hot seats. A Google search will reveal stories of six to eight coaches in hot-seat situations for the 2025 season. Not all Alabama football fans agree that Kalen DeBoer is on a hot seat in year two, but plenty of pundits put him there. No doubt DeBoer's seat is warm after the Alabama Crimson Tide failed to reach the Playoffs. It is too early to know how warm.
Recently Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams discussed the hotter seat between DeBoer and Hugh Freeze. They disagreed.
Adams concluded "DeBoer faces more pressure. It's Alabama. The Tide expect national championships, and DeBoer didn't come close last season ... Just imagine if DeBoer misses the playoff for a second straight season, or – Lord, help him – he loses the Iron Bowl. Alabama fans will help him pack for Washington." I suspect Adams is correct that DeBoer cannot fail to reach the Playoff again without many Crimson Tide fans losing faith in him. DeBoer could probably survive losing an Iron Bowl, as long as Alabama won a Playoff game a few weeks later.
Toppmeyer saw the hot seat situation differently. "Freeze faces more pressure, because his buyout is tens of millions of dollars cheaper than DeBoer's. Auburn could stomach Freeze's buyout as easily as a shot of fine liquor. DeBoer's contract should buy him at least three seasons ... Fans on the Plains are desperate for a good season. Freeze enters 2025 in win-or-be-fired mode now. His buyout won't save him. Only wins can."
Toppmeyer makes a good point about the buyout situations. According to Adam Cole of the Montgomery Advertiser, Auburn paid $16M in buyouts in 2021; $7.8M in 2022; $18.5M in 2023; and $6.3M in 2024. Those figures do not include assistant coach buyouts. Auburn still owes Gus Malzahn four payments of $2.7M to be paid annually through 2028. If Auburn fires Freeze in 2025, he will be owed around $17M, but the payouts could also be spread out through 2028. Toppmeyer is right that money would not prevent Auburn from firing Freeze.
A different situation for Alabama Football
Alabama Football has a different situation. A no-cause termination of DeBoer after the 2025 season would carry a buyout of around $70M. I sense that Greg Bryne knew going in, the transition after Nick Saban would probably be rocky. Having little or nothing to do with the hefty buyout, I expect the Byrne plan was to stick with DeBoer for three seasons minimum, no matter the on-field results.
The bottom line is DeBoer's seat may be warm, but the only true hot seat in the state of Alabama is the one Hugh Freeze sits on.