Tuesday night was anticlimactic for Alabama football fans. In the first weekly CFB Playoff rankings, the Selection Committee ranked the Crimson Tide No. 4. Most predictions had the Tide at No. 4, with only a few others having projected a No. 5 ranking.
Other fanbases will complain about the rankings, but to this point, Alabama football fans can be content. Alabama's loss to FSU gave the Tide no realistic chance to be ranked above undefeated Texas A&M. The full CFB Playoff Top 25 is available here.
The rankings will change over the next five weeks, but based on the current rankings, Alabama Football would receive a bye, followed a quarterfinal game against the Georgia vs. Memphis winner. On Alabama's side of the bracket for a semifinal game are the Ohio State Buckeyes.
There is plenty of room for debate about the SEC compared to the other three in college football's Power Four. In the Playoff committee's Top 25, there are 10 SEC teams, seven Big Ten teams, five ACC teams, and three Big 12 teams. In the rankings' top 12 teams, the SEC has six, the B1G three, the Big 12 two, and none for the ACC. The 12th team is Notre Dame, ranked No. 10.
Alabama Football vs. LSU Computer Model Predictions
As of Tuesday night FanDuel had the Crimson Tide favored by 9.5 points over the Bengal Tigers.
ESPN Analytics gives Alabama an 80.9% probability to beat LSU. The Massey Ratings are higher on the Crimson Tide at 86%, with a score of 31-17. Jeff Sagarin gives Alabama a 76% probability of winning and projects a 30-17 score. Brian Fremeau's FEI model gives Alabama a 74.9% probability with a projected score of 31-17. Bill Connelly's SP+ model has Alabama winning 30-21. The College Football Nerds model projects a 26-20 Alabama win.
The models cannot measure the impact of a mid-season coaching change or potential scheme changes resulting from a coaching transition.
For curious Alabama Crimson Tide fans, all the models included above have Vanderbilt giving DJ Durkin his first Auburn loss as interim head coach.