ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) went easy on Alabama in its post-Week 7 rankings. Alabama's loss to Tennessee dropped the Crimson Tide just one spot to No. 6. The algorithm's Alabama Playoff prediction was a different story.
Before the loss to Tennessee, the FPI gave the Crimson Tide an 82.4% probability of making the Playoff. The projection dropped to 49.4% after the loss to the Vols. The FPI now has 17 teams with a 38% or higher probability of making the Playoff field. The Crimson Tide's projection is the eighth-highest, and among SEC teams, only Georgia is higher at 78.1%.
Alabama fans don't need the FPI to understand the Crimson Tide's Playoff situation. With two losses, Alabama must win its next five games to make the Playoff. Week 7 brought some chaos to college football. It would take more chaos for Alabama to make the Playoff with a 9-3 regular-season record. Other sports media sources no longer project the Crimson Tide as a Playoff team.
ESPN's FPI analytics now gives Alabama only a 47.9% probability of beating LSU.
A small consolation for Alabama
The Crimson Tide is the highest-ranked two-loss team in the FPI. Others are Texas, LSU, and Oregon, ranked No. 7, No. 8, and No. 10, respectively.
Mississippi State, Missouri, and Auburn were the SEC's biggest FPI movers after Week 7. Auburn's road win over Georgia pushed the Tigers up 10 spots in the FPI to No. 21. Mississippi State dropped 11 spots to No. 38, and Missouri dropped 10 spots to No. 27.
Florida moved up six spots to No. 19 after beating Texas in Austin. After Saturday's wins, the Kentucky Wildcats and the Ole Miss Rebels moved up four spots each, to No. 26 and No. 11, respectively. Tennessee's win over the Crimson Tide moved the Vols up only one spot to No. 12. Auburn's upset of Georgia moved the Georgia Bulldogs down just one spot to No. 3.
Texas A&M's win over The Citadel boosted the Aggies only one spot to No. 20. Alabama's probability of beating the Aggies dropped slightly, from 86.8% to 83.5%. Alabama's probability of winning the Iron Bowl dropped from 89.2% to 82.8%.
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