If you want to know how much college football has changed in the past few years. The No. 1-ranked, undefeated Big Ten Champion Indiana Hoosiers are nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the Rose Bowl College Football Playoff quarterfinal on New Year’s Day.
The opening odds were released on Friday night, following Alabama’s 34-24 1st round CFP road win over Oklahoma, and according to the FanDuel Sportsbook, the Hoosiers are 6.5-point favorites over the Crimson Tide.
Indiana opens as a 6.5 point favorite vs. Alabama on @FDSportsbook in the CFP quarterfinal 👀 pic.twitter.com/cV7VlzCMWG
— Bussin' With The Boys (@BussinWTB) December 20, 2025
Crimson Tide a 6.5-point underdog to Indiana in Rose Bowl CFP quarterfinal
In the context of this particular season, it’s no surprise that the Hoosiers are favored. They have the Heisman Trophy winner, Fernando Mendoza, at quarterback, and are coming off a surprising upset victory over the defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes. While on the other side, three-loss Alabama needed some serious special teams breaks and a pick-six to outlast the Sooners, and is still only two weeks removed from a beatdown at the hands of Georgia.
Alabama has struggled to run the ball all season, and managed just 66 yards against the Sooners. Ty Simpson had a bounce-back performance on Friday night, finishing 18-for-29 for 232 yards and two touchdowns through the air against the No. 2 defense in the country by adjusted EPA/play, but he was far from dominant, and the Sooners racked up 102 more yards of total offense in the game.
However, in the context of college football history, it’s utterly absurd that the Hoosiers are even matched up with Alabama in the postseason, let alone nearly a touchdown favorite. When Curt Cignetti, a former Nick Saban assistant, took over Indiana, it was the losingest program in college football history. Yet, over his first two seasons, he’s managed a 24-2 record, the program’s first Big Ten title since 1967, and has his team positioned to win a national title.
The 6.5-point spread is just the opening number. It will likely be bet around before New Year’s Day arrives. I’d imagine that the early sharp money comes in on Indiana, moving it to a touchdown or even a 7.5 point line before the public money starts to come in on Alabama. The moves will be worth monitoring to see what the betting market thinks of the Tide after a much-needed CFP first-round victory.
Injuries can always play a role in moving a line, but Alabama seemed to have escaped Norman mostly unscathed. Indiana, though, is without star defensive lineman Stephen Daley, who suffered a serious injury after the Big Ten Championship Game when he was attempting to celebrate with fans at Lucas Oil Stadium.
The status of Tim Keenan III and Red Morgan, two key Alabama defenders who left Friday night’s game with injuries, will be important, but both are expected to be back. The bigger potential move would come from a return of star edge rusher LT Overton, who missed the game.