There are many reasons why the Alabama Crimson Tide will likely make the College Football Playoff. They are well-coached, have a navigable schedule, and boast arguably the best secondary in FBS. However, to realistically say they can win a national title might be a step too far. The good news is ESPN's Bill Connelly put them into a group of 18 that could. The bad news is they need to do all this...
Connelly highlighted the following five big ifs that will be required for Alabama to win a national title.
- If Keelon Russell is really, really good.
- If a running back is ready to break some tackles.
- If Ryan Coleman-Williams got rid of the yips.
- If Adrian Klemm is really, really good.
- If the portal delivered a defensive line.
While every team mentioned had at least three ifs to be met, Alabama was in a group of six teams needing five ifs to happen, along with USC, Michigan, and three total long shots in Tennessee, BYU, and Missouri. Although it is great to still be mentioned, is that really good enough? Alabama has a different standard than most of the teams on the list. It remains to be seen if the Tide will live up to it.
Let's address the five big ifs Connelly identified and see which ones are the easiest to be crossed off.
Alabama can rise to the occasion on some of its big ifs, but not all of them
Of the five ifs mentioned above by Connelly, the most likely to be rectified would be that of Ryan Coleman-Williams getting rid of his so-called yips. He is immensely talented as a wide receiver, one who could contend for the Heisman Trophy if all goes right for him this fall. Should he play up to the standard he set as a true freshman, he may be a first-round pick. He can outgrow his inconsistencies.
Next up is probably Keelon Russell being really, really good. He too is immensely talented. Assuming he does beat out Austin Mack for the starting job, he could be the straw that stirs the drink for the entire offense. His dual-threat playmaking abilities could alleviate some concerns with the offensive line and running game. For Alabama to win a national title, Russell has no choice but to be sensational.
While those two ifs are arguably the most fixable, the next three are a bit more challenging. If we were to cross a third if off, it might be the transfer portal delivering big time along the defensive line. So much pressure is being placed on USC transfer Devan Thompkins this offseason. The good news is the secondary is otherworldly. It should allow for Kane Wommack to really hone in on the front seven.
And then there were two... The running game and the offensive line. To be frank, both need to jell together for Alabama to achieve all it can this season. You cannot have one without the other. As far as the easier of the two to fix, it is probably having a running back who can break tackles. EJ Crowell comes into Tuscaloosa with a ton of promise as a five-star recruit. Maybe he will break a few big runs?
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And finally, the least likely to be met is Adrian Klemm being really, really good. Truth be told, he is an exceptional offensive line coach. The problem is he needs to replace four of five starters up front on an offensive line that was not all that good to begin with last year. It was fine in pass protection, but not really much of a factor in run blocking. It is the team's bottleneck, its Achilles' Heel for this season.
Overall, Alabama seems to be good enough to satisfy roughly three-and-a-half of its five big ifs. Look for Coleman-Williams and Russell to shine, as well as for the defensive line coming through in clutch situations. However, banking on the ground game to be something it is not, as well as the offensive line getting better in a hurry, may be too tall of an ask. They need to get better as the year goes along.
Alabama is likely a playoff team because of its schedule, but it needs to grow up fast to win the CFP.
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