Alabama and Texas A&M stats indicate the Aggies will not upset the Crimson Tide. After beating Arizona State in Week 2, Mike Elko's team has lost to Kentucky, LSU, and Missouri. The Aggies' two wins in that run were gimmies, against Arkansas and The Citadel. In the three SEC losses, the A&M offense produced only two touchdowns.
As Marcel Reed's passing accuracy has become unreliable, the A&M offense has struggled. Reed's passing accuracy was a poor 38.5% in the loss to LSU and 48.7% in the loss to Missouri. According to Brian Fremeau's model, the Aggies are ranked No. 55 in Offensive Efficiency. The Aggies rank higher in Defensive Efficiency at No. 26, but have underperformed enough that Mike Elko turned over defensive play-calling responsibility to A&M first-year DC Lyle Hemphill. Elko is widely respected as one of college football's best defensive minds, but the Aggies' defense has performed better with Hemphill's calls.
The Aggies struggle to pressure opposing quarterbacks, putting added pressure on their defensive backfield. With Hemphill's calls, the A&M secondary has performed better. Against Missouri, Austin Simmons was limited to 147 passing yards. Former Alabama Crimson Tider, defensive back Dezz Ricks is one reason why the Aggies' pass defense has climbed above Alabama's in some team stats.
The Aggies are close to the bottom of the SEC in run defense, giving the Tide offense a 'get-right' opportunity.
No mystery for Kane Wommack and Alabama Defense
There is no mystery about what the Aggies' offense will do against Kane Wommack's defense. It will match Tennessee's game plan. Give Marcel Reed easy throws to make and rely on the running game. Freshman running back KJ Edwards attracts attention. He doesn't have DeSean Bishop's fireplug build, but his per-carry average is higher than Bishop's at 6.74 yards. He is averaging over five yards per carry against SEC defenses. The Aggies have depth at running back with Reuben Owens and sophomore Jamarion Morrow, who, coincidentally, is built like Tennessee's Bishop.
Against the Aggies, Alabama can't repeat its missed-tackles weakness against Tennessee. Alabama was credited with 21 missed tackles against the Vols. According to StatCat, Alabama is the SEC's fourth-worst team in missed tackles with 35 in SEC games.
Additional stats provided by Sports Reference and cfbstats.com
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