Going back to the 2021 Alabama football season, the Crimson Tide has suffered when an opponent scores 32 or more points. In that situation, Alabama's five-season record is 2-7. The stat is interesting but not surprising. In college football, the average threshold for a win is scoring in the low 30s.
Has college football scoring been increasing in recent seasons? When the Crimson Tide won the National Championship in 2020, Alabama's scoring average was No. 2 nationally at 48.5 points per game. That season, 12 FBS teams scored 40.2 points or higher. In the 2021-2025 seasons, the number of teams that averaged 40+ points were five, six, five, two, and five, respectively.
The statistical snapshot is too small to provide proof. However, it suggests that not allowing games to become shootouts is more important than winning shootouts.
Now that Keelon Russell has been named QB1, Josh Pate is predicting a 10-2 regular season for the Crimson Tide. Pate's projection is about more than Russell being a game-changer. Pate is bullish on Kane Wommack's defense improving on last season. About Alabama's 2026 prospects, Pate stated: "They don't need 40 points per game this year." If Pate's 10-2 is correct, Alabama is a national championship contender.
Alabama fans and experts expect Crimson Tide defense to be improved
Expectations of an improved Crimson Tide defense are something upon which Alabama fans and national reporters agree. The defensive line is bigger and expected to be much more physical. The secondary is exceptional, and Alabama is more than solid at linebacker.
Alabama fans don't always do Wommack justice when comparing his two Crimson Tide defenses to Nick Saban's last few defenses. The 2020 Alabama offense was so explosive that the Crimson Tide defense didn't have to be elite to win the National Championship. Against AP-ranked teams that season, Alabama was No. 15 nationally, allowing 26.4 points per game. Alabama's last three Saban defenses averaged 23.8, 25.8, and 23.8 points against AP-ranked teams.
For the same stat, Kane Wommack's 2024 and 2025 defenses averaged 20.8 points and 24.7 points, respectively. The Tide's 2025 defense was frequently challenged due to a Crimson Tide offense that was No. 46 among FBS teams at 41.9% on third-down conversions.
More essential than explosive offensive plays, the '26 offense needs to be more efficient on third downs. If the Keelon-led attack is more efficient, Alabama will likely have its best defense since Nick Saban's defensive glory seasons.
Note: Stats provided by cfbstats.com and Sports Reference
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