Buzz Williams left Texas A&M for Maryland after last season, and not even a year in, that move looks like a mistake. Maryland is a cellar-dweller in the Big Ten, 8-13 overall and 1-9 in conference play, while Williams' successor in College Station has taken the SEC by storm.
Bucky McMillan brought his ‘Bucky ball’ up-tempo, aggressive play-style from Samford to Texas A&M and has ridden it to the top of the league. Though unranked, the Aggies are leading the conference at 17-4 (7-1) as they prepare for a trip to Tuscaloosa on Wednesday night.
While Nate Oats’s team has been struggling lately, losers of four of its last seven games, Alabama might have the answer to beating ‘Bucky Ball’ and getting back into the win column.
Nate Oats can match Bucky McMillan's pace and not play into his hands
McMillan’s teams like to run. The Aggies are near the top of the country in pace, ranking 25th in the country in KenPom’s adjusted tempo. Alabama, fourth in adjusted tempo, would seemingly be playing right into McMillan’s hands, and in past years that would have been true.
Last season, Alabama nursed a 14.4 percent turnover rate (per CBBanalytics) and was easily a bottom-quartile team by opponent turnover percentage. All of those extra possessions are exactly what McMillan is attempting to force with his swarming defensive philosophy.
This year, however, without All-American point guard Mark Sears, the Tide don’t give the ball away. Despite operating at a blistering pace, Alabama has a 99th percentile turnover percentage of just 11.4 percent. In turn, it allows only 11.1 points off turnovers per game, which remarkably is 88th percentile.
I say that particularly stat is remarkable because it’s the raw points of turnovers, not the rate, as in the percentage of a team’s points that come off turnovers. That difference is notable because Alabama’s pace means there are going to be a meaningful number of extra possessions compared to the average game, which can skew a lot of the Tide’s raw defensive stats.
For example, Alabama’s opponents are attempting 23.2 three-pointers a game, which is 48th percentile, but by three-point attempt rate (the percentage of possessions that result in a three-point attempt) Bama’s opponents are at 33.9 percent, which is 92nd percentile.
In short, Alabama does not turn the ball over, and Alabama’s opponents do not score when they do. That’s a significant problem for a Texas A&M team that averages 20.0 points off turnovers per game (99th percentile), and feasts on its opponent’s 17.7 percent turnover rate this season.
In the Aggies’ wins this season, those numbers are even better.
Texas A&M | in wins | in losses |
|---|---|---|
Opponent turnovers/game | 15.5 | 13.8 |
Opponent turnover rate | 18.3% | 15.4% |
Points off turnovers | 18.3 | 15.3 |
It’s not a guarantee that if you protect the ball, you’ll beat Texas A&M. However, there’s a very strong correlation between the Aggies’ ability to turn the ball over and score in transition and the number of games they win.
With Labaron Philon and Aden Holloway sharing ball-handling duties for Oats, can play a fast-paced game with A&M, but it should be a fast-paced game that relies on shot-creation in the half-court, because that’s the area where Alabama has the biggest advantage, shooting 42.2 percent on half court possesions to A&M’s 36.1 percent.