While most computer models are projecting a close game on Saturday, Brian Fremeau's model predicts an Alabama win by 10 points, 34-24. Bill Connelly's SP+ model projects Alabama to win 32-27. Jeff Sagarin's model almost projects a tie, with the Crimson Tide winning 32.27 - 31.81.
I frequently recommend Freneau as a source to follow. He tracks a huge amount of data. Let's look at four of his datasets to test the prediction of an Alabama double-digit win.
Alabama vs. Mississippi Data Sets
Freneau's data is opponent-adjusted and does not include garbage time stats. No matter how good an algorithm is, four weeks of data is a small sample. Even at Week 12, games have more variables than any model can factor in. The numbers have value nonetheless.
- Offensive Efficiency - Alabama ranks No. 6 among all FBS teams. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 11. The difference gives Alabama a slight edge.
- Defensive Efficiency - Alabama ranks No. 10. The Bulldogs rank No. 39. The gap between the defenses gives Alabama more than a slight edge, perhaps a significant one.
- Defensive Drive Success Rate - Alabama is ranked No. 28 and the Bulldogs are ranked No. 73. This data point is a solid indicator of why Alabama could win by more than a touchdown.
- Special Teams Efficiency - Alabama ranks No. 20. Mississippi State ranks No. 92. A sizable advantage for the Crimson Tide warrants a closer look. Alabama punter Alex Asparuhov averages 46 yards, compared to 43.5 yards for Mississippi State's Ethan Pulliam. The Bulldogs' kicker, Kyle Ferrie, has made six-of-seven field goals. Alabama's Conor Talty is eight-of-eight. Ferrie's field goals have all been under 40 yards. He showed plenty of leg last season, when he was 3-for-3 from 50+ yards. The main statistical difference comes from the returners. Alabama has a statistical advantage in both kick and punt return. Oddly, and perhaps skewing the data, the Bulldogs have not returned a punt this season.
Hats off to any reader who made it through this. We could have been saved from this tedium by a single-sentence post. 'Alabama will beat Mississippi State because the Crimson Tide has the better defense.' My Friday score prediction will be an Alabama win, but probably not by double digits. The cowbells are always a factor.
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