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Alabama moved up in ESPN's FPI rankings as did the Crimson Tide's Playoff probability

Beating the Aggies gave Alabama a much-needed Playoff probability boost
ByRonald Evans
David Leong-Imagn Images
David Leong-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

With the win over the Aggies, Alabama moved up one spot in ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). Alabama is ranked No. 5, one spot below the SEC's highest-ranked team, Georgia, at No. 4. The Crimson Tide ranked above undefeated teams, Utah and UCLA, and higher than nine one-loss teams, including Indiana, Texas Tech, and BYU.

The FPI has 10 SEC teams ranked in its top 25 teams: Georgia (No. 4); Alabama (No. 5), LSU (No. 7); Texas No. 8); Ole Miss (No. 9); Tennessee No. 12; Florida (No. 17); Oklahoma (No. 19); Texas A&M (No. 22); and Kentucky (No. 24). Just outside the top 25 is South Carolina at No. 26.

Auburn was the SEC's biggest FPI loser. The Tigers fell eight spots to No. 29 after losing at home to LSU, 38-17.

Alabama and SEC Playoff Contention

Alabama's loss to Tennessee reduced the Crimson Tide's Playoff probability to 49.4%. Saturday's win boosted the Crimson Tide to 62.8%, even though the FPI model still gives LSU a 55.1% probability of beating Alabama in Baton Rouge.

According to the FPI, Georgia is the SEC's top Playoff contender with a 79.9% probability of making the Playoff field. Six SEC teams are ranked at 39.8% or higher to make the Playoff. Along with Georgia and Alabama, the other SEC teams are Texas (57.4%), Kentucky (52.2%), LSU (45.2%), and Ole Miss (39.2%).

Based on the FPI calculation of remaining schedules, LSU has the toughest path, with a remaining SOS that leads the entire FBS. Kentucky is at No. 11, Texas at No. 19, Ole Miss at No. 31, and the Crimson Tide's remaining schedule ranks No. 39. For perspective, BYU's remaining SOS is No. 50, and Indiana is No. 64.

Looking ahead to Baton Rouge, the FPI's efficiency calculations have Alabama's No. 6 offense facing LSU's No. 1 defense. Alabama's No. 9 defense will battle LSU's No. 21 offense.

The top four teams in the FPI are Miami, Ohio State, Indiana, and Notre Dame.

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