Alabama outplaying Vegas’s expectations could be a sign the Tide are back to SEC supremacy

Despite a Week 1 non-conference loss to Florida State, No. 8 Alabama has already reestablished itself as the betting favorite to win the SEC. However, that’s not all that the betting odds have to say about Alabama’s place in college football as Kalen DeBoer hits the midway point of his second season in Tuscaloosa. 

As Douglas Farmer of Covers.com points out, Alabama, after losing outright as a 13.5-point road favorite in Tallahassee, has covered the Vegas point spread in each of its last four games, including an outright win as a 2.5-point underdog at Georgia in Week 5, and excluding the 73-0 drubbing of ULM in Week 2, the Tide have covered their other three games by an average of 5.5 points. 

DeBoer allowed the program to slump to nine wins in 2024 and added his fourth loss to an unranked opponent in Week 1, but there’s a case to be made that Alabama is in the process of reasserting its SEC supremacy. That will be put to the test in Week 7 as the Crimson Tide travel to No. 14 Missouri, where they are currently a 3.5-point road favorite. 

Betting odds position Alabama as the most clear national title contender in the SEC

There is a clear top 3 in college football six weeks in. No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Miami, and No. 3 Oregon have all separated themselves as the best teams in the country and the most likely national championship contenders. As far as the AP Poll and public perception are concerned, Alabama still has work to do to establish itself as a clear No. 4 behind that group. Currently, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Oklahoma are all ahead of the Tide in the national rankings. 

However, Vegas’s prognostication, Alabama has a better chance to win it all than even the Hurricanes. Alabama has the third-shortest national championship odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook at +700, trailing only Ohio State (+430) and Oregon (+500). Miami and Georgia both have +1000 odds, and Oklahoma is at +1600. 

So Alabama is continually outperforming the same models that have the Crimson Tide as the third favorite to win the national championship and give them the best chance to win the SEC. Everything can change in an instant, but it may be time for Alabama to get more national respect for the stretch it has put together after its loss to Florida State.