The College Football Playoff committee's decision to drop Alabama six spots to No. 10 after a two-point loss to now-No. 8 Oklahoma has allowed doubt to creep in about the Crimson Tide's playoff hopes.
It seemed obvious that all Alabama would need to do was beat Auburn in the Iron Bowl in a couple of weeks, and the playoff would be assured, regardless of what happens in the SEC Championship Game.
But the committee just cracked the door to leave the Crimson Tide out unless they can win the SEC.
How? Well, at No. 10, Alabama is currently the last team in the field thanks to the guarantees of the five highest-ranked conference champions making the field. That means the No. 11 and 12 spots are reserved for the ACC Champion and the top team from the Group of Five, respectively.
Right behind Alabama at No. 11 is BYU, the first team out of the field currently. The Cougars, however, have a major opportunity. If BYU wins out, it will likely face Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship Game. What happens if BYU then beats Texas Tech?
The Cougars would automatically qualify as the Big 12 champion. Would the Red Raiders tumble from No. 5 all the way out of the College Football Playoff in favor of a potentially three-loss SEC runner-up Alabama?
It seems unlikely, though leaving out an Alabama team that went 7-1 in the toughest conference in the country, and penalizing them for having to play another game, would blow up the current system as we know it.
But it's now a distinct possibility, one that many hadn't considered until now.
Alabama may have to win the SEC Championship to secure a playoff spot
It's obvious with Alabama's baffling free-fall that the committee does not want five SEC teams in the playoff field. It's never been about getting the best teams in the field; it's always been about satiating the other conferences in the interest of "fairness."
The Big Ten wouldn't be happy getting two fewer teams than the SEC. They could probably live with one less.
The committee just set a precedent that both Georgia and Ole Miss should pay close attention to. If the committee were willing to drop Alabama like that, it would do the same to the Bulldogs or Rebels if they dare lose another game.
That's particularly true for Ole Miss. The Rebels seemed likely to have clinched a playoff bid by beating Florida last week, but an Egg Bowl loss could drop them completely out of the field if the committee follows the same script they followed to drop Alabama.
The general thought was that beating Auburn in two weeks would be enough to clinch the Tide's playoff berth. That no longer seems to be a guarantee.
The committee is stacking the deck against the Crimson Tide and doing whatever it can to put obstacles in their path.