Skip to main content

Alabama’s hot March Madness start not swaying oddsmakers’ grim Final Four outlook

Oddsmakers aren't buying Alabama as a legitimate contender for the Final Four despite back-to-back 20+ point victories to open the NCAA Tournament.
Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Alabama fans are riding high after a dominant 90-65 win over Texas Tech on Sunday night to punch the program's ticket to the Sweet 16 for the fourth consecutive season.

Under Nate Oats, making it to the second weekend of the Big Dance is no longer just a goal: it's an expectation, with the program's sights set on even higher, suddenly attainable goals.

The dominant win over Texas Tech followed a 20-point opening-round win over Hofstra. Per Bart Torvik's data, only two teams have played better than Alabama in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament: Houston and St. John's.

And yet, despite how good Alabama is playing - even without star guard Aden Holloway - this team is still getting virtually zero respect nationally. With big, bad, No. 1-seed Michigan waiting in the Sweet 16, many aren't giving the Crimson Tide a chance.

Alabama opened on FanDuel as a 10.5-point underdog for Friday's Sweet 16 odds. They face even longer odds to get to the program's second Final Four.

Per FanDuel, Alabama has the second-longest odds to reach Indianapolis, ahead of only Texas at +1400. The Crimson Tide sits at +1100.

Alabama facing long odds to get to the Final Four

It would figure that Alabama would have long odds considering its next game is against Michigan, which has been one of the three best teams in college basketball this season, alongside Arizona and Duke.

But Tennessee is in the same region and lower-seeded, but is at +750. The Vols would have to potentially get past the two top seeds in the region, just like Alabama, in order to advance to the Final Four. Tennessee faces Iowa State on Friday, with the winner battling the Alabama/Michigan winner on Sunday.

Most Tide fans aren't disillusioned about Friday's matchup against the Wolverines. Michigan is the better basketball team. But in one game, variance can become a real thing. If Alabama shoots the ball similarly to how it did against Texas Tech (19-of-45), then it can take down Michigan and get to the Elite Eight for the third straight season.

It will take a monumental effort, but Oats and Alabama won't back down from anyone. And it's going to get nearly a week's worth of extra motivation from everyone picking against them in Chicago.

Loading recommendations... Please wait while we load personalized content recommendations