There are two lines of thinking about Alabama playing in the SEC Championship Game.
For one, playing in the final one seems fitting. Alabama won the first SEC Championship Game back in 1992. Bookending the history of the conference title game by winning the first and the last version is an intriguing thought.
And while some don't agree, to me, winning the SEC is still meaningful.
The other train of thought is that playing in the conference title game at this point is totally unnecessary, and with a team that has dealt with as many injuries as Alabama has this season, getting an extra week off is preferable to playing in a game that is ultimately meaningless.
Unfortunately there's no crystal ball to determine whether if Alabama played in the game they would win or not. Because most would want to play in it if it meant a for-sure win. Not so much if it meant the kind of beatdown the Tide got last season against Georgia.
Those who don't want Alabama to play in the SEC Championship Game were probably happy with the Week 11 results, which reduced the chances of the Crimson Tide making it to Atlanta.
Alabama's SEC Championship chances took a hit with Week 11 results
Coming into Week 11, Alabama was ahead in three-way tie scenarios with Tennessee and Texas based on conference opponent win percentage. But Alabama's resume took a hit this week with LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Kentucky, and Mississippi State all losing.
Now, based on this SEC tiebreaker tool, it looks like Texas and Alabama would likely be tied in that scenario, both above Tennessee, which would force the next step in the SEC's tiebreaker rules, which would be record vs. common opponents between the two. Texas is 4-0 in that scenario, whereas Alabama is 3-1. Texas' win over Tennessee would be the deciding factor.
That, of course, assumes chalk across the board. There are a few results that could swing the conference opponent win percentage in favor of Alabama, including Kentucky winning at Missouri and Texas A&M winning at Oklahoma.
Alabama also loses both head-to-head tiebreakers to Texas and Tennessee if one of them loses a game. Texas finishes with games against Arkansas and Texas A&M, while Tennessee still plays LSU and Vanderbilt.
If Texas drops a game and Tennessee and Alabama both finish 7-2, the Vols have the tiebreaker with a head-to-head win over the Crimson Tide.
If Tennessee loses a game and Alabama and Texas both finish at 7-2, the Longhorns remain ahead of the Crimson Tide thanks to the record vs. common opponents.
At this point, Alabama's path to the SEC Championship Game would likely require winning out and both Texas and Tennessee losing one of their final games. Certainly not impossible, but an improbability based on the opponents that are left.
Tennessee has the toughest game remaining at home against LSU, but with the Tigers dropping back-to-back games and falling out of the College Football Playoff picture entirely, it wouldn't be much of a surprise if Lane Kiffin's team completely quit. That's the thing about a team full of mercenaries with nothing to play for.
So if you want Alabama to make it to Atlanta, you'll want to cheer against Tennessee and Texas. If you don't want them there, then cheer for the status quo.
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