Saturday was not a perfect storm for the Alabama Crimson Tide, but it wasn't smooth sailing toward a Playoff bye either. Alabama's offense was not impressive in the 21-6 win over Vanderbilt. The Crimson Tide defense saved the game. Worse for Alabama in Week 11 was that LSU, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Mississippi State lost.
ESPN's FPI dropped the Crimson Tide one spot to No. 4. Now at 6-4, LSU held firm at No. 7. Texas' late win in Baton Rouge didn't improve the Longhorns' FPI ranking from its previous No. 6 spot. What did change for Steve Sarkisian's team is that its SOS and Strength of Record (SOR) are now higher than Alabama's. Texas has the No. 2 SOS and No. 6 SOR. Alabama's SOS dropped to No. 6, and the Tide's SOR is also No. 6. The Playoff Selection Committee uses a separate data source called Record Strength, rather than using any other model's SOR.
South Carolina's bad 34-6 loss to Arkansas pushed the Gamecocks' ranking down 14 spots to No. 33. Apparently, ESPN's algorithm didn't adjust for South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers being out due to injury. In another FPI quirk, Kentucky lost to Florida and moved up one spot in the FPI to No. 34. After losing to Georgia, Missouri dropped three spots to No. 28. The Bulldogs moved up one spot, back to the FPI's No. 1 team.
Tennessee remained at No. 11 in the FPI. Though they have not played their Week 11 game yet, Ole Miss and Oklahoma dropped one spot each to No. 13 and No. 23, respectively.
After Auburn's 41-9 walloping of Mississippi State, the Tigers moved up four spots to No. 35. The Bulldogs moved down four spots to No. 50.
Alabama and the SEC Championship Game
The FPI projects that, at 18.7%, Texas has a better chance of winning the SEC Championship Game than the Alabama Crimson Tide at 13.8%. Alabama's FPI Playoff probability remains solid and is the fourth-highest across the FBS, at 96.1%,
If the next Playoff rankings are consistent with the FPI's Playoff probabilities, the SEC is down to four contenders: Georgia, Alabama, Texas, and Tennessee.
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