Alabama basketball is in the Sweet 16 for the third straight year and will be looking to advance to the Elite Eight for just the third time in program history when they face off against BYU on Thursday night in Newark.
It will be a homecoming of sorts for the Crimson Tide's Mo Dioubate and Cliff Omoruyi. Dioubate is orginally from Queens, less than an hour drive from Prudential Center, where the Sweet 16 matchup will take place. Omoruyi spent the first four years of his collegiate career at Rutgers, just a short distance away in Piscataway.
To get here, Alabama knocked 15-seed Robert Morris in a closer-than-expected opening round game and then rolled past 7-seed Saint Mary's in the 2nd Round.
For BYU, the Cougars beat a strong mid-major challenger in 11-seed VCU in the 1st Round and then held off 3-seed Wisconsin in the 2nd Round in a high-scoring affair. BYU enters as one of the hottest teams in the country, having won 11 of their last 12 games with the only loss coming to an elite Houston squad in the Big 12 Tournament.
BYU coach Kevin Young has done an excellent job in his first season in Provo, and he has his Cougars playing their best basketball at just the right time.
Since February 12th, BYU has the No. 1 offense in the country. They will present a tremendous challenge for Alabama in the Sweet 16. It will take strong play on both ends of the court for Alabama to advance to the Regional Final.
How to Watch Alabama basketball vs. BYU in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament
Tip Time: 6:09 PM CT
TV: CBS
Streaming: FuboTV
Betting Odds:
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Spread: Alabama -5.5
Over/Under: 175.5
Prediction:
Alabama is a small favorite in a game that most expect to be a shootout. The over/under of 175.5 is the highest over/under in the Sweet 16. Both the Tide and Cougars boast elite offenses, but Alabama is substantially better on the defensive end, contrary to popular belief.
Following Alabama's win over Saint Mary's, the Crimson Tide moved up to 29th in the country in KenPom's defensive efficiency rating. The Cougars are 72nd.
Media and so-called "experts" seem to have this game pegged wrong. BYU is the team most of them seem to think Alabama is. The Cougars are almost solely reliant on scoring from beyond the arc - they produce nearly 48% of their points from three-pointers. People have had the wrong idea about Alabama basketball for years, claiming the Crimson Tide "live and die by the three." They don't. BYU does.
Plenty of talk has been about whether Alabama's defense is good enough. The narrative seems to be ignoring how much worse BYU is on that end of the court.
Following Alabama's win over Kentucky on the road in January, Nate Oats talked about how the Crimson Tide borrowed a strategy from the Boston Celtics. They identify "seals" on the other team; i.e. the worst defenders on the court and they attack that matchup over and over again.
Alabama has undoubtedly already identified who those players are for BYU via film study. They will attack those players on Thursday night. The Cougars are similar sylistically and in metrics to a Kentucky team that the Crimson Tide went 3-0 against this season, including a blowout win in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.
BYU is good enough to make this game competitive, particularly if they shoot 40% or above from three-point range. But if they don't, then this game likely gets out of hand, regardless of whether Alabama can knock down threes or not.
If BYU shoots 40% from three and Alabama shoots 30%, the Tide can still find a way to win. If Alabama shoots 40% while BYU shoots 30%, then this game gets ugly.