It’s still 10 days from Alabama’s season opener against Florida State at Doak Campbell Stadium, but the weather heading for Tallahassee is already a potential problem. Especially because Florida State just laid new sod in preparation for the season.
As Mike Rodak of Bama247 points out on social media, there is a chance of rain in Tallahassee next Saturday, which could lead to a sloppy Week 1 matchup between the Crimson Tide and the Seminoles. Worse yet, that may tip the tide ever so slightly in FSU’s favor.
In addition to new sod in Doak Campbell, long range weather models are hinting at a chance of rain next Saturday in Tallahassee for Alabama-Florida State. https://t.co/TObIJnuVNu pic.twitter.com/95dKveCtFx
— Mike Rodak (@mikerodak) August 20, 2025
Bad weather could favor the Seminoles in Week 1
Following last year’s disastrous two-win campaign, Mike Norvell made big changes on his staff, including hiring Gus Malzahn, who was recently fired as the head coach of UCF, as his offensive coordinator. The run-first play-caller then orchestrated a reunion with a former UCF Knight, Thomas Castellanos, who transferred back south after a two-year stint at Boston College.
Castellanos was a poor fit with new BC head coach Bill O’Brien last season, and quickly found himself on the bench midway through the year. However, in an offense more suited to his skill set in 2023, Castellanos ran for over 1,000 yards and 13 touchdowns. By EPA/carry, he was the 13th most efficient runner in college football.
That’s the player Malzahn will attempt to resurrect in Tallahassee this year, so if the weather makes it difficult to establish a downfield passing game, either because of the rain or the potential for poor footing with new sod that may not be ready to handle the elements, then the more run-heavy attack could be the more effective one.
That could be particularly true because of how FSU intends to run the ball. Castellanos is a threat to keep the ball on any play, which will allow the Seminoles to play 11-on-11 football in the run game with an Alabama defender forced to account for the quarterback even when he gives the ball up. That conflict will open running lanes and freeze Alabama defenders, who could have a tough time getting back up to speed on a wet field.
Alabama is the better team, and that’s reflected in the odds with the Tide favored by 13.5 points in the FanDuel Sportsbook. So, FSU will need a lucky break, and if the forecast doesn’t change between now and kickoff, then Mother Nature might be the one to provide it.