Alabama will play in the Sweet 16 for the fourth straight year when it tips off in Chicago on Friday night against top-seeded Michigan. If it wins, the Crimson Tide will advance to the Elite Eight for the third consecutive season.
To get here, Alabama put together impressive performances in 20+ point wins over Hofstra and Texas Tech in the first two rounds, but the task against the Wolverines will be monumental. Michigan has bee none of the three best teams in the country all year, alongside Duke and Arizona.
Michigan rolled past Howard and Saint Louis to advance to the Sweet 16, but will similarly face their toughest challenge of the NCAA Tournament to date.
Nate Oats knows it will take Alabama's best game of the season to have a shot, and that's just what he aims to pull out of his team.
Final betting odds for 1-seed Michigan vs. 4-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16
- Spread: Alabama +8.5
- Moneyline: Alabama -+340; Michigan -450
- Point total (over/under): 173.5
Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook and are liable to change at anytime.
This spread has dropped two full points since it opened in Alabama's direction. The Crimson Tide opened as 10.5-point underdogs, which underscored the historical task in front of it against Michigan. While it would still take an upset for the Crimson Tide to pull off the win, it wouldn't be as stunning as it appeared, at least not according to the oddsmakers.
The line seemed a little overinflated from the jump. KenPom favors Michigan by eight points, projecting a 91-83 win for the Wolverines, giving Alabama a 24% implied chance of victory.
Bart Torvik is roughly the same, projecting a 93-85 win over Michigan and giving Alabama a 26% implied chance of victory.
Final Prediction for Alabama vs. Michigan in the Sweet 16
My heart is screaming to pick Alabama in this one. I do think the Crimson Tide has more than a puncher's chance. If the defensive effort remains as high as it has been in the first two rounds of the tournament, this team can play with anyone. That's the only thing that held them back throughout the season and kept them from the upper-echelon of teams in college basketball, which obviously includes Michigan.
But my head can't quite get there. Michigan's imposing front court of Aday Mara, Yaxel Lendeborg, and Morez Johnson just feels like too much for Alabama. Aiden Sherrell will hold his own, but it's tough to see Noah Williamson holding up off the bench or London Jemison/Taylor Bol Bowen being able to match up with Lendeborg.
Alabama will give it a heck of an effort, and this game will be close, but Michigan just has a little too much firepower, particularly on the interior.
Pick: Michigan 90, Alabama 88
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.