Alabama basketball is one win away from getting to the Sweet 16 for the third straight season, a feat accomplished only one other time in program history. Standing in their way is a talented and experienced Saint Mary's team fully capable of sending the Crimson Tide home.
Perhaps standing in Alabama's way more than Saint Mary's is Alabama itself. The Crimson Tide fought against complacency in the first round matchup with Robert Morris. The hunger and the drive that led this team to the Final Four a year ago was missing in action against the Colonials. Robert Morris wanted it more and it showed. The game was much tighter than it should have been as a result.
Will Alabama play with the sense of urgency an NCAA Tournament game requires? Or will they hope superior talent wins the day against the Gaels? If it's the latter, then Crimson Tide fans can probably cancel any plans to travel to Newark for the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.
Saint Mary's will require Alabama's full, undivided attention. Alabama will have to play well if they hope to win and keep playing into the second weekend of the tournament. Another 6-of-21 shooting effort from three compounded by losing soundly on the offensive glass will be enough to send this team disappointingly back to Tuscaloosa.
Alabama will need more than the seven minutes they got out of Grant Nelson in the first round. Nelson expects to carry a "game-time decision" designation into Sunday night's game, but it would be a stunner if he doesn't play and doesn't play significant minutes to boot. The Crimson Tide will need him against a big Saint Mary's front line.
How to watch Alabama vs. Saint Mary's in the NCAA Tournament 2nd Round
Tip Time: 5:10 PM CT
TV: TNT
Streaming: FuboTV
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Spread: Alabama -5.5
Over/Under: 148.5
Prediction:
Oddsmakers and KenPom expect a close game. The Crimson Tide is a narrow 5.5-point favorite and KenPom projects a four-point Alabama win.
This game likely comes down to which team can control the tempo. Alabama plays at the fastest pace in the country, while Saint Mary's plays at one of the slowest. The Gaels rank 360 out of 365 Division I teams in tempo.
Saint Mary's isn't a particularly good shooting team, but it doesn't often matter because they rebound over 40% of their own misses and get second and third chance opportunities at scoring. Alabama will have to box out better than they did against Robert Morris and gang rebound the ball to prevent Saint Mary's from dominating.
It hasn't felt like it in games against Florida and the first round matchup with Robert Morris, but Alabama has been a really good rebounding team all season. They'll need that version of themselves to show up on Sunday night and not the version that got bullied on the O boards by the Colonials.
If Alabama can push the tempo and keep Saint Mary's off the glass, the Crimson Tide should win and it may not be close. If not, then this could be the final Alabama game of the season and we'll be left wondering what could have been.
Pick: Alabama 80, Saint Mary's 72