The SEC has pivotal games in Week 11, though that description should not apply to Alabama's game in Nashville. ESPN's FPI calculates that the Crimson Tide has a 94.8% probability of winning.
Other top computer models have Alabama winning 37-16 (Jeff Sagarin, with 88% probability), 38-16 (Bill Connelly's SP+, with 91% probability), 37-12 (Brian Femeau's FEI, with a 97.7% probabilty), and 37-17 (Kenneth Massey, with a 92% probability). For an SEC road game, those predictions come about as close to a lock as possible.
Every SEC team is in action in Week 11. Every team is playing for something, even if it just a late-season grasp of pride.
Along with Alabama, other SEC game winners in Week 11
- Texas (7-2) at LSU (6-3) - The game is a must-win for both teams. Lane Kiffin will have the most pressure, trying to avoid a crushing collapse. If LSU loses, the spiral will likely continue in Week 12 against Tennessee in Knoxville. Three models project LSU winning by two to six points. The exception is Kenneth Massey, whose model projects a Texas 28-26 win.
- All the models project Tennessee (7-2) beating Texas A&M (4-5) in College Station. The Vols are predicted to win by a margin of two to nine points.
- Ole Miss (6-3) at Oklahoma (5-4) is projected to be a close game. All the models have the Rebels winning by a margin of two to four points.
- Florida (5-4) at Kentucky (7-2) is a must-win for the Wildcats to keep their Playoff hopes alive. The models project a Kentucky win by three to six points.
- All the models have South Carolina (6-3) beating Arkansas (3-6). The Gamecocks projected winning margin is six to 15 points.
- All the models project Georgia (8-1) to handle Missouri (6-3) in Athens, by a winning margin of 11 to 20 points.
- The Mississippi State vs. Auburn game in Starkville is a toss-up contest. All four models project the Bulldogs winning by a score ranging from one to four points.
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