Will Week 8 of college football bring more chaos? As long as chaos doesn't include another Alabama loss, Crimson Tide fans may not much care. For the record, I'm sticking with my preseason prediction that Alabama will finish the regular season at 10-2 and will win a Playoff game. Perhaps I'm clinging to that belief as a buffer against many predictions that the Crimson Tide will finish 9-3.
Finishing 9-3 would be satisfactory, as long as Alabama became the first-ever 9-3 (not conference champion) Playoff team.
In the ongoing flood of Playoff predictions, one source provides a wealth of detail. That source is The Athletic's Austin Mock. Mock's calculations give four SEC teams a better than 50% probability of making the Playoff with 9-3 records. LSU is projected to have an 84% chance, compared to Alabama at 74%. Texas' chances are also higher than the Crimson Tide's. Florida trails as the fourth SEC team.
ESPN's FPI ranks Alabama No. 6 and LSU No. 8. The model also gives the Bengal Tigers a 52.1% probability of beating Alabama. If the FPI model is correct, Alabama must give the Bengal Tigers their third loss. If LSU wins and loses a third game to Texas or Tennessee, LSU and Alabama could have equal records, with LSU having a head-to-head advantage.
Further muddying the waters is whether the SEC will get four teams in the Playoff. Early-season talk of the SEC getting five teams has ended. Some current sources project the SEC will get only three teams.
The FPI gives Alabama the SEC's second-highest Playoff chance at 49.2%. Tennessee, Ole Miss, and Texas lurk not far behind. LSU and Kentucky are also inside the FPI's 19 teams with the highest Playoff probability. Georgia is a near-lock. After the Bulldogs, Alabama and five other SEC teams may be competing for three or only two spots.
Much will change. The FPI calculates that the toughest remaining SOS is LSU's, followed by Ole Miss, Texas, and Tennessee. Kentucky has a far easier path. With another FCS game, Alabama has the easiest path among the potential 9-3 teams.
On Saturday, either Ole Miss will become another SEC two-loss team, or Texas will become a three-loss team. A guess is that a Texas loss might later benefit Alabama more than an Ole Miss loss.
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