Despite hitting the freshman wall late in the year and struggling down the stretch, Amari Allen exceeded all reasonable expectations during his freshman season for Alabama. He went from a fringe Top 100 prospect as a high school senior to firmly on the NBA Draft radar as a potential first-round pick.
Allen finished as Alabama's leading rebounder and was third in both scoring and assists. He was also arguably the Tide's most impactful perimeter defender.
In the immediate aftermath of Alabama's Sweet 16 loss to Michigan, Allen sent a mixed message about his future.
"I'll definitely be back here next year," Allen said. "Unless my agent says, you know, the NBA's the best option, but if that's not the case, I'll be right back here."
Allen has time to make the decision, with the deadline to enter the NBA Draft not coming until May 1st this year. But what should the talented freshman do?
Amari Allen currently carries a late 1st Round NBA Draft projection
The good news for Allen (and perhaps Alabama) is that he finds himself in the same exact position that Labaron Philon was in a year ago. Philon will be able to guide him, providing feedback on his process and what ultimately led him to decide to return to Tuscaloosa for his sophomore year.
Philon had a late first/early second round projection a year ago. He chose to go through the draft process before returning to Alabama at the last possible moment. It's a path that Allen could choose to follow, especially with how much Philon's stock shot up after an All-American sophomore season.
Allen is currently 29th on Tankathon's Big Board, with them projecting him to go 30th overall to the Dallas Mavericks in their mock draft.
The 30th pick in last year's draft was slotted around $14.1 million over four years.
There's a substantial difference between first and second round picks, however. All first-round picks get guaranteed contracts. Second round picks do not, though that can be negotiated. It's risky, however, and the contracts are typically shorter (three years vs. four years) with less money guaranteed.
Allen's best path is probably similar to Philon's: he should declare for the draft, participate in the NBA Combine, and then make a decision based on where his stock sits. If he can work himself into the Top 20-range and get a promise from a team there, then he should probably go ahead and stay in the draft. If he remains a late first-round projection, then returning to Alabama makes the most sense, with the risk of falling into the 2nd Round and not getting that guaranteed money.
Allen is just now scratching the surface of his immense basketball potential, and he could potentially be the leading man on the 2026-27 Crimson Tide, with a chance to work his way into the lottery a year from now, much like Philon did by returning and putting together an outstanding sophomore season.