Mark down Alabama Football for a win on Saturday afternoon. As Nick Saban said, 2025 Vandy is a stronger team than 2024 Vandy, but so is Alabama. The Crimson Tide will beat the Vanderbilt Commodores because of one clear advantage that clearly favors Alabama.
Often, cherry-picking stats can produce fool's gold. The outcome of college football games hinges on many factors. Unless a game is a massive talent mismatch, no one stat, or even any combination of stats, can predict winners. Stats provide clues, not assurances.
There can be statistical exceptions so definitive that they allow bold, but still sensible, one-stat predictions. In Saturday's game, that exception is the Alabama football passing offense versus Vanderbilt's pass defense.
Six SEC football teams have allowed opponents to complete 62% or more of their passes. Vandy is No. 15 among all SEC teams, allowing 65.3%. Alabama has not been much better in this stat; the SEC's No. 12 at 62.3%. Vanderbilt is much better at run defense; No. 8 among SEC teams, allowing 3.02 yards per carry. Alabama has allowed 4.34 yards per carry. These stats are not opponent-adjusted.
A stat provided by Brian Fremeau provides an opponent-adjusted calculation of a team's defensive efficiency. Fremeau's Defensive Efficiency Rating provides insight into which team will have the most offensive success on Saturday. Fremeau's ratings show Alabama as the SEC's 4th most efficient defense. Vanderbilt is next to last among SEC teams, and only better than Arkansas.
The Crimson Tide offense may again struggle to produce many yards on the ground against the Commodores. Though, as he showed against Georgia, Ryan Grubb will wisely not shy away from running the football. Keeping the Vandy defense honest and chewing up clock will benefit the Crimson Tide, as it did against Georgia.
Alabama Football Offense Too Much For Vandy
Grubb's play-calling, Ty Simpson's accuracy and decision-making, plus the Crimson Tide's bevy of receiving options, will be too much for Vanderbilt's not-efficient defense.
Short of the Alabama Crimson Tide gifting the Commodores with turnovers and penalties, Alabama will be a double-digit winner on Saturday afternoon. My score prediction is Alabama 34 - Vanderbilt 24. As much as a 17-point winning margin would not be shocking.