ESPN's preseason Football Power Index (FPI) always draws attention. Is it a good predictor for Alabama and the SEC's playoff contenders? A fair answer is yes and no. The accuracy of ESPN's closely guarded algorithm improves after about half a season of game data. In the preseason ratings, it does not factor in the development of unproven players during the season, and it cannot predict future injuries.
It is a worthwhile tool for preseason discussions and provides an early snapshot of probable Playoff contenders. According to the FPI, the SEC has eight teams with a 20.5% or greater probability of making the playoffs. They are Texas, 69.9%; Georgia, 63.7%; Alabama, 41.3%; LSU, 39.7%; Texas A&M, 39.1%; Oklahoma, 28.2%; Ole Miss, 22.2%; and Tennessee, 20.2%.
Among the eight SEC teams, Texas has the most difficult schedule and Georgia the easiest. There are a couple of reasons why Strength of Schedule (SOS) doesn't warrant much importance. Despite talk otherwise, the Playoff Selection Committee looks at wins and losses much more than SOS. Another reason is that SEC competition is so tough; the top 15 SOSs are SEC teams, with Vanderbilt and Georgia at No. 18 and No. 20, respectively.
Alabama Crimson Tide win total ranked
Per the preseason FPI rankings, Alabama at No. 8 has the SEC's third-highest win total at 8.6 wins. Georgia is No. 1 at 9.9 wins, followed by Texas at 9.8 wins. Close behind the Crimson Tide are Texas A&M and LSU, both with 8.4 projected wins. Next among SEC teams is Oklahoma at 7.5, followed by Ole Miss and Tennessee at 7.3 projected wins.
Drawing Playoff conclusions in July is something akin to folly. But if the FPI is taken for reasonable preseason accuracy, the Crimson Tide would not need to beat Georgia to advance to the Playoff. Alabama would only need to win over two of Tennessee, Texas A&M, and LSU. Plus, of course, win all the other games it is expected to win. It is also possible that Alabama can make the Playoff field at 9-3 if it gets a signature win against one of its best four opponents. That signature win would likely have to come from Georgia, LSU, or Texas A&M, and not Tennessee.
Alabama football fans are excited about the FPI. There has been minimal chatter from SEC fans otherwise, except for the Aggies. Texas A&M fans strongly disagree with the Aggies being ranked outside the FPI top 10.
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