Negotiations stalled this week on a new CFB Playoff format for 2026 and beyond. The debate goes back years. The words now being used to describe it are stalemate, impasse, and standoff. Such is the result when multiple sides of an argument are fueled by misperceptions. The primary source of the misperceptions is coaches, who, while they may be wrong, are understandably driven by self-interest. It is now possible that the 2026 Playoff format will be the same as the 2025 one.
There was almost a deal a few weeks ago. Except for the SEC and the Big Ten, the rest of the college football world hated it. A total of eight Playoff slots in a 14 or 16-team Playoff field would go to Power Two teams. Pushback from SEC football coaches has come close to killing that option; that, and the national outcry of unfairness.
In determining the future Playoff format, the SEC and the B1G can do whatever they want. They no longer want the same thing. The 5+11 format now favored by the SEC is not acceptable to the Big Ten unless the SEC goes to a 9-game conference schedule. Some SEC coaches know an added conference game will reduce their job security. They are not wrong because the SEC is college football's toughest conference top to bottom.
Big Ten coaches are likely no less concerned about job security. If Brett Bielema and Urban Meyer represent consensus among the B1G's coaches, misperception fuels their belief that the B1G has surpassed the SEC as college football's top conference. The claim comes from back-to-back Big Ten teams winning the National Championship. Supposedly now irrelevant, is that SEC teams have won the National Championship in 13 of the last 19 seasons.
Even if recency bias determines the only measurement, facts dispute the Big Ten's claims. Those facts are evident from many sources. The ESPN FPI Strength of Record is one such source. Using ESPN's SOR calculations, the top half of SEC teams averaged a SOR ranking of 11.1 at the end of the 2024 season. The top half of Big Ten teams averaged a ranking of 18.4. The bottom half of SEC teams averaged a ranking of 48.6, compared to the bottom half of the Big Ten at an average of 65.1.
SOR is key to ranking CFB Playoff teams
Unless the CFP Playoff Managers and the Selection Committee can assure that new data will accurately measure SOR, the SEC has only financial reasons to move to a 9-game conference schedule. CFP Executive Director, Rich Clark, provided details this week that new "data points" will be used by the Selection Committee in selecting at-large teams.
The SEC is asked to take a leap of faith and move to nine games. Perhaps the SEC will say no, and the 2025 Playoff cycle will be a test case to see if the new algorithm is sufficient. That would mean no Playoff format change for the 2026 Playoff.