All expectations for Saturday night in Baton Rouge indicate a close game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU. LSU has some advantages, including arguably the most hostile home crowd in college football. Alabama might have a slight edge in key areas, but not enough for the Tide to be inconsistent in any facet of the game.
Texas A&M beat the Bengal Tigers for two main reasons. The Aggies stuffed the LSU run game and got enough pressure on LSU quarterback, Garrett Nussmeier for three interceptions. Nussmeier is respected for quick decisions and accuracy. His season stats dipped from the interceptions against the Aggies and a 50% completion rate against A&M.
Along with run-stuffing schemes, the Aggies brought enough pressure against Nussmeier to cause five quarterback hurries and two sacks. Can Kane Wommack's Alabama Football defense match the success A&M had against LSU? Statistically, against Power Five offenses, Alabama and A&M are almost the same. The Aggies have given up an average of 3.5 yards rushing yards; Alabama has allowed 3.75 yards.
The Aggies have been good at opponent pass completion percentage (against Power Five teams); leading the SEC at 52.1%. Alabama is No. 9 in the SEC at 60.2%. Perhaps telling for what will happen in Baton Rouge is Alabama is No. 1 in the SEC in interceptions against Power Five teams. The Aggies are not far behind.
Kane Wommack and Alabama Crimson Tide Boldness
How bold should Kane Wommack be, to pressure Garrett Nussmeier? LSU has outstanding tackles. The Bengal Tigers' offensive line has one weakness. Due to an injury, LSU's new left guard, Paul Mubenga has limited game experience. The redshirt freshman saw no action in the 2023 season and has played little in the 2024 season. Going into the season, LSU insiders would have rated Mubenga as LSU's seventh or eighth-best offensive lineman. Alabama may have success pushing the pocket by outmatching Mubenga. Even so, getting pressure on Nussmeier may require rushing more than four Alabama defenders. Fewer numbers in the secondary is a gamble Wommack may have to take, to slow the LSU offense.
Against Power Five defenses, LSU is No. 2 in the SEC averaging 319.7 yards per game. Nussmieir passed for 405 yards in the loss to A&M. However, LSU is tied for No. 11 in the SEC (against Power Five teams) with an average of 7.4 yards per passing attempt. Given Nussmeier's strengths in quick reads and decisions, if Wommack brings extra pass rushers, they will have to produce quickly. If that is how Wommack plays the chess match, the outcome of the risk-reward situation could be the game's deciding factor.
Note: Multiple stats in this post were provided by cfbstats.com and lsusports.net.